FGUS63 KMSR 231724 ESGSSL SPOON..SANGAMON..LA MOINE RIVER BASINS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1223 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Mackinaw River CNGI2 13.0 14.0 20.0 10 16 8 12 <5 <5 :Spoon River LNMI2 15.0 21.0 24.0 16 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 SEVI2 22.0 25.0 30.0 13 20 <5 5 <5 <5 :Sangamon River MNTI2 13.0 17.0 20.0 22 37 <5 <5 <5 <5 RVTI2 23.0 26.0 29.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 PETI2 23.0 24.0 33.0 5 14 <5 11 <5 <5 :Salt Creek GREI2 16.0 17.0 20.0 7 12 7 9 <5 <5 :Sangamon River OKFI2 471.0 472.9 478.5 10 19 6 10 <5 <5 CDLI2 456.6 459.0 462.0 17 22 8 15 <5 <5 :La Moine River CLMI2 20.0 22.0 24.0 14 21 9 18 <5 9 RIPI2 22.0 23.0 27.0 7 15 5 14 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231723/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mackinaw River CNGI2 0.9/ 1.0/ 1.3/ 2.4/ 4.9/ 13.1/ 15.5 :Spoon River LNMI2 2.5/ 2.7/ 3.7/ 6.2/ 9.9/ 16.7/ 17.9 SEVI2 5.2/ 5.5/ 6.7/ 9.6/ 13.6/ 22.8/ 24.4 :Sangamon River MNTI2 4.6/ 4.9/ 5.9/ 9.0/ 12.6/ 15.3/ 16.3 RVTI2 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 8.7/ 16.6/ 21.1/ 22.3 PETI2 5.8/ 5.8/ 5.9/ 7.3/ 13.9/ 21.4/ 23.5 :Salt Creek GREI2 1.0/ 1.3/ 1.9/ 3.3/ 7.2/ 13.8/ 18.2 :Sangamon River OKFI2 456.8/ 456.9/ 457.2/ 458.9/ 464.8/ 471.1/ 473.8 CDLI2 444.1/ 444.1/ 444.4/ 446.1/ 452.4/ 458.1/ 460.4 :La Moine River CLMI2 3.4/ 3.4/ 4.5/ 6.2/ 11.6/ 21.9/ 23.4 RIPI2 4.7/ 5.2/ 6.4/ 9.3/ 12.8/ 18.4/ 23.2 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231723/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mackinaw River CNGI2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Spoon River LNMI2 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 SEVI2 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Sangamon River MNTI2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 RVTI2 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0 PETI2 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Salt Creek GREI2 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Sangamon River OKFI2 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 CDLI2 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1 :La Moine River CLMI2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 RIPI2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$