FGUS63 KMSR 241637 ESGTMN TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH IN MINNESOTA LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1135 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :South Branch Buffalo River SABM5 13.0 15.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Buffalo River HWYM5 8.0 9.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DILM5 13.0 20.0 26.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wild Rice River TWVM5 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HNDM5 20.0 28.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Marsh River SHYM5 14.0 20.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sand Hill River CLXM5 20.0 25.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Red Lake River HIGM5 12.0 12.5 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CRKM5 15.0 20.0 23.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Snake River MKLM5 67.0 71.0 75.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ALVM5 106.0 108.0 110.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Two Rivers River HLLM5 802.0 806.0 810.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Roseau River ROSM5 16.0 18.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410241635/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :South Branch Buffalo River SABM5 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 6.2/ 8.5 :Buffalo River HWYM5 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.8 DILM5 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.9/ 5.0/ 7.5 :Wild Rice River TWVM5 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 3.1/ 4.5 HNDM5 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.7/ 5.8/ 9.9 :Marsh River SHYM5 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.3 :Sand Hill River CLXM5 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 5.3/ 6.4/ 7.8 :Red Lake River HIGM5 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.6/ 4.4 CRKM5 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.2/ 6.1/ 8.1 :Snake River MKLM5 61.2/ 61.2/ 61.2/ 61.2/ 61.3/ 61.8/ 62.7 ALVM5 97.0/ 97.0/ 97.0/ 97.0/ 97.1/ 97.8/ 99.2 :Two Rivers River HLLM5 793.1/ 793.1/ 793.1/ 793.1/ 793.9/ 795.7/ 797.0 :Roseau River ROSM5 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 5.6/ 6.5/ 6.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410241635/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :South Branch Buffalo River SABM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Buffalo River HWYM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 DILM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Wild Rice River TWVM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 HNDM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Marsh River SHYM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Sand Hill River CLXM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Red Lake River HIGM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 CRKM5 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Snake River MKLM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 ALVM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Two Rivers River HLLM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Roseau River ROSM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$