FGUS63 KMSR 231821 ESGUPM UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 121 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Black River BESM4 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ontonagon River RKLM4 25.0 26.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sturgeon River SNWM4 12.0 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ALSM4 8.0 11.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chocolay River HRVM4 10.0 11.5 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Branch Escanaba River GNNM4 7.0 9.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Middle Branch Escanaba River HUMM4 6.5 8.0 9.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pine River RUDM4 17.0 19.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231821/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Black River BESM4 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.5/ 2.8/ 3.2/ 3.7 :Ontonagon River RKLM4 5.7/ 5.8/ 5.9/ 6.4/ 7.6/ 8.2/ 8.7 :Sturgeon River SNWM4 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.9/ 5.3/ 5.6 ALSM4 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.3/ 5.5 :Chocolay River HRVM4 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 3.6 :East Branch Escanaba River GNNM4 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.7/ 1.0/ 1.2/ 1.7/ 2.0 :Middle Branch Escanaba River HUMM4 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.0/ 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.5 :Pine River RUDM4 1.3/ 1.5/ 2.0/ 2.7/ 3.5/ 5.2/ 8.1 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231821/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Black River BESM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Ontonagon River RKLM4 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4 :Sturgeon River SNWM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 ALSM4 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Chocolay River HRVM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :East Branch Escanaba River GNNM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Middle Branch Escanaba River HUMM4 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Pine River RUDM4 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$