FGUS63 KMSR 231500 ESGWIS WISCONSIN..TREMPEALEAU..BLACK..LA CROSSE RIVER BASINS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Trempealeau River ARCW3 8.0 9.0 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DDGW3 10.5 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black River NEIW3 18.0 20.0 22.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BRFW3 47.0 51.0 55.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 GALW3 12.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wisconsin River RRLW3 11.0 13.5 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ROTW3 25.0 27.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Yellow River BBCW3 12.0 15.5 17.0 8 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wisconsin River WIRW3 12.0 13.5 14.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Yellow River NCAW3 15.0 16.5 18.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wisconsin River WDEW3 16.0 17.6 18.9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PORW3 17.0 18.0 19.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Baraboo River RBGW3 14.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 RSPW3 18.5 21.0 23.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BBOW3 9.0 10.5 12.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BABW3 16.0 22.0 23.1 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black Earth Creek BLEW3 5.5 7.0 8.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wisconsin River MUSW3 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kickapoo River LAFW3 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 VIOW3 14.0 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 REAW3 11.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 SOGW3 13.0 16.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 GMIW3 13.0 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 STEW3 12.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231500/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Trempealeau River ARCW3 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 4.3/ 5.7/ 7.0/ 7.5 DDGW3 5.0/ 5.1/ 5.2/ 6.4/ 7.8/ 8.7/ 9.1 :Black River NEIW3 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.3/ 4.4/ 5.9/ 7.6/ 10.0 BRFW3 35.8/ 35.9/ 36.2/ 37.6/ 38.9/ 41.1/ 44.5 GALW3 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.4/ 4.7/ 5.9/ 7.7/ 9.6 :Wisconsin River RRLW3 4.8/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 5.5/ 6.2/ 6.8 ROTW3 13.5/ 13.5/ 13.7/ 14.7/ 15.9/ 17.2/ 19.1 :Yellow River BBCW3 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.1/ 4.1/ 6.2/ 11.8/ 13.6 :Wisconsin River WIRW3 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 4.1/ 5.0/ 5.8 :Yellow River NCAW3 9.4/ 9.4/ 9.6/ 10.1/ 10.7/ 12.6/ 13.9 :Wisconsin River WDEW3 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.7/ 5.0/ 7.0/ 8.3 PORW3 9.6/ 9.6/ 9.8/ 10.6/ 11.6/ 12.8/ 13.6 :Baraboo River RBGW3 4.8/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.7/ 6.9/ 7.6/ 9.5 RSPW3 8.7/ 8.8/ 9.1/ 9.9/ 11.2/ 12.3/ 14.2 BBOW3 2.6/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 4.1/ 5.1 BABW3 7.0/ 7.1/ 7.6/ 8.5/ 9.8/ 11.1/ 13.4 :Black Earth Creek BLEW3 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.4/ 2.7/ 3.1/ 3.5/ 3.9 :Wisconsin River MUSW3 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.5/ 2.3/ 2.9/ 3.8/ 4.4 :Kickapoo River LAFW3 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 4.4/ 5.3/ 6.0/ 7.5 VIOW3 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.6/ 8.5/ 9.5/ 10.0/ 10.8 REAW3 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.1/ 5.4/ 6.6/ 7.8/ 9.5 SOGW3 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.9/ 6.4/ 7.6/ 9.0/ 11.0 GMIW3 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.7/ 7.6/ 9.0/ 9.8/ 11.8 STEW3 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.4/ 7.2/ 8.3/ 8.9/ 9.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231500/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Trempealeau River ARCW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 DDGW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 :Black River NEIW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 BRFW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 GALW3 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.5 :Wisconsin River RRLW3 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8 ROTW3 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.4/ 0.2 :Yellow River BBCW3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Wisconsin River WIRW3 1.7/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1 :Yellow River NCAW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Wisconsin River WDEW3 2.7/ 2.5/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0 PORW3 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4 :Baraboo River RBGW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 RSPW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 BBOW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 BABW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 :Black Earth Creek BLEW3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Wisconsin River MUSW3 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7 :Kickapoo River LAFW3 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1 VIOW3 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 REAW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2/ 0.2 SOGW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 GMIW3 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 STEW3 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.3 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$