FGUS64 KTUA 141510 ESGDDC LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK 909 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... Valid 11/14/2024 - 02/12/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Arkansas River COOK1 8.0 10.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 SYRK1 10.0 13.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 GCKK1 10.0 13.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DDCK1 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek RCNK1 29.0 31.0 33.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Buckner Creek BETK1 16.0 21.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pawnee River BTTK1 30.0 31.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 SANK1 24.0 27.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rattlesnake Creek MACK1 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ZENK1 17.0 17.5 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Ninnescah River PTTK1 9.0 11.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked Creek ENWK1 6.5 8.0 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cimarron River FRGO2 5.0 6.0 7.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Medicine Lodge River KIOK1 10.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B TUA 1114 Z DH12 /DC202411141509/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT .B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations : Valid 11/14/2024 - 02/12/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River COOK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.8/ 3.9/ 4.6/ 5.6/ 6.5 SYRK1 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.9/ 7.0/ 7.5 GCKK1 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 6.0/ 6.2/ 6.6/ 7.0 DDCK1 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.2/ 7.6/ 8.1 :Walnut Creek RCNK1 7.9/ 7.9/ 7.9/ 8.4/ 15.0/ 27.8/ 29.8 :Buckner Creek BETK1 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 6.6/ 9.3/ 15.1 :Pawnee River BTTK1 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 6.5/ 13.3/ 17.0 SANK1 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.8/ 10.4/ 15.2 :Rattlesnake Creek MACK1 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.8/ 5.5/ 6.2 ZENK1 12.9/ 12.9/ 12.9/ 12.9/ 13.3/ 14.9/ 15.3 :South Fork Ninnescah River PTTK1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 4.3/ 5.9/ 6.8 :Crooked Creek ENWK1 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.6/ 4.1/ 5.3 :Cimarron River FRGO2 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.4/ 4.7 :Medicine Lodge River KIOK1 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 2.3/ 3.9/ 4.6 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly :throughout the year. .END $$