FGUS64 KTUA 141510 ESGICT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK 909 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... Valid 11/14/2024 - 02/12/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Arkansas River GTBK1 12.0 18.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HCHK1 8.0 13.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HAVK1 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 DRBK1 12.0 15.0 16.2 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MULK1 16.5 19.0 21.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 OXFK1 17.0 20.0 23.0 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ARCK1 11.0 17.0 21.0 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek ALBK1 24.0 25.0 25.7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cow Creek LYNK1 18.0 22.0 24.7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HTCK1 9.5 10.5 12.5 14 94 9 94 <5 94 :Little Arkansas River ALMK1 22.0 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 HTDK1 25.0 27.0 29.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 SEDK1 22.0 25.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cowskin Creek COWK1 18.0 22.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Ninnescah River MDKK1 8.0 10.0 12.0 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ninnescah River PECK1 17.0 21.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BLPK1 23.0 24.5 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Slate Creek WELK1 19.0 22.0 23.5 15 8 10 <5 <5 <5 :Whitewater River TOWK1 22.0 25.0 28.0 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 AGSK1 21.0 25.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :West Branch Walnut River EDWK1 21.0 22.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Walnut River EDEK1 19.0 23.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 AGAK1 23.0 28.0 36.0 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 WFDK1 18.0 22.0 29.0 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ARKK1 18.0 22.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chikaskia River CBNK1 10.0 19.0 28.0 14 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fall River FRNK1 17.0 27.0 36.0 16 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Verdigris River ATOK1 19.0 21.0 26.0 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 IDPK1 30.0 47.6 53.0 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 CFVK1 18.0 23.0 26.5 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River FLRK1 22.0 27.0 32.0 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CTWK1 9.0 11.0 18.0 8 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PLYK1 32.0 34.0 37.0 7 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Neosho River IOLK1 15.0 21.0 27.0 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 CNUK1 23.0 28.5 35.0 9 9 <5 5 <5 <5 EREK1 29.0 32.0 36.0 9 8 6 6 <5 <5 PPFK1 21.0 23.0 32.0 16 14 9 9 <5 <5 OSWK1 17.0 20.0 25.0 16 12 8 6 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B TUA 1114 Z DH12 /DC202411141509/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT .B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations : Valid 11/14/2024 - 02/12/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River GTBK1 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.5/ 5.3/ 7.8 HCHK1 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.5/ 2.6/ 4.0/ 5.1 HAVK1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.1/ 4.9/ 6.7/ 7.9 DRBK1 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 3.0/ 5.2/ 6.7/ 9.2 MULK1 6.6/ 6.6/ 6.6/ 7.8/ 9.8/ 11.9/ 14.0 OXFK1 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.3/ 10.2/ 12.1/ 15.7/ 17.2 ARCK1 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 6.2/ 8.2/ 11.6/ 13.5 :Walnut Creek ALBK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 5.1/ 9.4/ 17.6/ 21.2 :Cow Creek LYNK1 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 9.7/ 13.8/ 15.4 HTCK1 3.8/ 3.0/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 7.5/ 10.4/ 11.0 :Little Arkansas River ALMK1 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 4.6/ 10.7/ 15.9/ 21.1 HTDK1 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 8.6/ 13.7/ 18.5/ 23.4 SEDK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 6.6/ 10.7/ 14.6/ 19.1 :Cowskin Creek COWK1 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 10.5/ 12.7/ 15.6/ 17.2 :South Fork Ninnescah River MDKK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.5/ 5.7/ 7.3/ 8.1 :Ninnescah River PECK1 3.9/ 3.9/ 4.0/ 5.7/ 8.5/ 12.9/ 14.7 BLPK1 10.5/ 10.5/ 10.6/ 12.2/ 14.6/ 18.7/ 20.3 :Slate Creek WELK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 5.0/ 8.5/ 13.0/ 22.1/ 23.3 :Whitewater River TOWK1 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 8.1/ 13.0/ 20.1/ 24.7 AGSK1 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 7.9/ 9.9/ 13.9/ 20.5 :West Branch Walnut River EDWK1 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.7/ 7.9/ 8.6/ 12.8/ 17.9 :Walnut River EDEK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.5/ 4.2/ 9.5/ 12.1 AGAK1 5.7/ 5.9/ 6.1/ 7.5/ 9.2/ 18.2/ 23.3 WFDK1 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.0/ 6.2/ 9.9/ 18.5/ 21.7 ARKK1 3.8/ 3.8/ 4.5/ 7.5/ 10.0/ 15.2/ 17.5 :Chikaskia River CBNK1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 4.6/ 7.2/ 11.1/ 12.4 :Fall River FRNK1 4.1/ 4.5/ 5.5/ 8.6/ 13.9/ 19.4/ 21.4 :Verdigris River ATOK1 3.8/ 4.4/ 6.2/ 9.1/ 12.8/ 17.9/ 19.8 IDPK1 4.4/ 5.9/ 9.2/ 13.5/ 22.5/ 28.2/ 36.7 CFVK1 1.6/ 1.9/ 3.3/ 4.7/ 8.8/ 13.7/ 20.9 :Cottonwood River FLRK1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.4/ 5.1/ 8.0/ 20.1/ 24.8 CTWK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.8/ 3.1/ 5.1/ 7.9/ 10.9 PLYK1 5.2/ 5.2/ 6.5/ 12.1/ 22.3/ 30.3/ 33.3 :Neosho River IOLK1 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.6/ 11.5/ 14.4/ 17.2 CNUK1 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 13.2/ 18.8/ 22.5/ 28.1 EREK1 14.2/ 14.2/ 14.3/ 17.5/ 23.8/ 27.9/ 33.9 PPFK1 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.8/ 13.4/ 19.2/ 22.5/ 25.2 OSWK1 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.9/ 10.3/ 14.0/ 19.3/ 22.0 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly :throughout the year. .END $$