FGUS64 KTUA 131559 ESGTUA Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma 1100 AM CST, Wednesday, March 13, 2024 COLORADO -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN-- The Rocky Mountains The potential for flood conditions is NEAR normal this spring across the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado. Flooding at most forecast points in the Colorado Rocky Mountains is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity rainfall. As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately 92 percent-of-median precipitation and have accumulated 88 percent-of-median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table is included below. At the end of February, mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River Basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were at 65 percent of capacity, 112 percent of median storage, and 118 percent of last year's storage. S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites As of Wednesday: March 13, 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------- BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION Data Site Name (Ft) % % Current Median Median Current Median Median ------------------------------------------------------------------- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN APISHAPA 10000 4.9 5.6 88 7.4 10.3 72 BRUMLEY 10600 10.0 8.8 114 12.0 11.2 107 FREMONT PASS 11300 13.4 13.6 99 14.6 13.4 109 GLEN COVE 11400 5.2 3.4 153 9.6 8.2 117 MEDANO PASS 9700 2.8 6.0 47 8.3 8.8 94 NORTH COSTILLA 10600 4.2 6.1 69 8.5 10.4 82 PORPHYRY CREEK 10800 15.7 13.4 117 17.5 12.2 143 SOUTH COLONY 10900 12.0 15.3 78 15.3 18.1 85 WHISKEY CK 10300 6.8 9.8 69 9.1 12.8 71 ----- ----- Basin wide percent-of-median 88 92 Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent and Total Precipitation values The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for spring (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates an increased chance for equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures across a majority of Colorado. The precipitation outlook for the same period indicates equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation in the Arkansas River Basin of Colorado. Current soil moisture estimates from the CPC are near normal (30-70th percentile) in the Upper Arkansas River valley. The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 7, 2024 indicates that there are Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions in parts of the mountain headwaters of the Upper Arkansas River. The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point on the headwaters of the Arkansas River above Pueblo. The table below contains a summary of some potential maximum stages from the model output. Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction As of Tuesday: March 12, 2023 Mar 12 - Jul 10 50% Exceedence Weekly Flood 50% exceedence 50% exceedence Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft) ------------------------------------------------------------------ Leadville 9.0 7.3 6.8 Salida 8.0 4.0 4.0 Wellsville 9.0 5.5 5.4 Parkdale 9.0 4.5 4.4 Canon City 10.0 7.6 7.5 Portland 9.0 4.5 4.4 Pueblo 8.0 6.9 5.5 The Southeastern Plains The potential for flood conditions is NEAR normal this spring. Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability of flooding. Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for the area indicate near normal soil conditions (30-70th percentile) in the plains of southeastern Colorado. The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 7, 2024 indicates that there are Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern Colorado. The Arkansas River is currently flowing at near normal levels downstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at near normal levels. The Purgatoire River is flowing at below normal levels. Reservoir storage below Pueblo (Meredith, Trinidad, and John Maritn) at the end of February was at 14 percent of capacity, 91 percent of median storage, and 166 percent of last year's storage. The table below presents some southeastern Colorado forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days. Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction As of Tuesday: March 12, 2024 Fcst Point % Probability % Probability % Probability Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding ID ADLC2 65 14 7 LXHC2 79 28 7 LAPC2 36 16 3 NPTC2 30 17 12 SCVC2 24 9 7 ******************************************************* * * * This, and additional Water Supply Information, * * can be found on our Web Page at: * * * * www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply * * * ******************************************************* SOUTHERN KANSAS The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas is NEAR normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is directly related to specific precipitation events. Precipitation during the last 90 days has been normal to above normal across southern Kansas. However, this is the driest time of the year, and the anomaly is not large. Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates indicate above normal soil moisture in parts of southwestern Kansas near Dodge City and the Oklahoma border. Estimates are above the 90th percentile in this area. Streamflows are near to below normal on the Arkansas River. Flows are near to above normal in southeastern Kansas, including the Neosho River. Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is near normal. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs in southern Kansas currently have near 100 percent of their flood-control storage available. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for spring (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates equal chances for above, near, or below normal temperatures across Kansas. The CPC outlook also indicates increased chances of above normal precipitation across eastern Kansas during the same period. The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 7, 2024 indicates Severe Drought (D2), Moderate Drought (D1), and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across parts of southern Kansas from long-term drought conditions. The worst drought areas are near Hutchinson and in Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas. The table below presents some southern Kansas forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days. Select Points in Southern Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction As of Tuesday, February 27, 2024 Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding ID AGAK1 24 Not Expected Not Expected AGSK1 23 16 9 ALBK1 20 18 17 ALMK1 32 26 10 ARCK1 57 15 7 ARKK1 19 Not Expected Not Expected ATOK1 42 10 Not Expected BETK1 14 9 4 BLPK1 16 11 7 CBNK1 64 Not Expected Not Expected CFVK1 28 12 Not Expected CNUK1 71 35 9 COWK1 34 Not Expected Not Expected CTWK1 50 30 Not Expected DRBK1 25 8 7 EDWK1 27 23 18 ENWK1 24 18 6 EREK1 71 51 26 FLRK1 37 9 Not Expected FRNK1 44 18 1 HAVK1 22 16 9 HTCK1 30 24 Not Expected HTDK1 24 8 Not Expected HTCK1 40 29 Not Expected IDPK1 51 Not Expected Not Expected IOLK1 62 Not Expected Not Expected KIOK1 15 11 9 LYNK1 16 Not Expected Not Expected MDKK1 27 10 Not Expected MULK1 26 18 7 OSWK1 76 62 15 OXFK1 39 19 Not Expected PECK1 17 6 Not Expected PLYK1 50 15 Not Expected PPFK1 78 68 Not Expected PTTK1 11 Not Expected Not Expected RCNK1 28 18 8 SEDK1 20 14 9 TOWK1 34 23 12 WELK1 66 50 20 WFDK1 47 25 18 ZENK1 15 12 4 AMCK1 24 19 Not Expected BRLK1 16 Not Expected Not Expected EMPK1 62 44 Not Expected EPRK1 40 38 Not Expected LRYK1 42 42 Not Expected NEOK1 68 62 Not Expected ******************************************************* * * * This, and additional Water Supply Information, * * can be found on our Web Page at: * * * * www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply * * * ******************************************************* SOUTHWEST MISSOURI The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri is NEAR normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to specific heavy rainfall events. Precipitation for the last 90 days across southwestern Missouri has been near normal. Soil moisture is below normal (20-30th percentile). Streamflow is normal to below normal. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for spring (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates equal chances of above, below, or near normal temperatures across southwestern Missouri. There are increased chances of above normal precipitation over the same period. The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 7, 2024 indicates Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across most of southwestern Missouri. The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of minor flooding over the next 90 days. Select Points in Southwest Missouri Ensemble Streamflow Prediction As of Tuesday: March 12, 2024 Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding ID CHTM7 29 8 Not Expected JOPM7 14 4 Not Expected TIFM7 10 5 4 WCOM7 38 Not Expected Not Expected BXTK1 43 8 Not Expected ******************************************************* * * * This, and additional Water Supply Information, * * can be found on our Web Page at: * * * * www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply * * * ******************************************************* Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook. $$