FGUS72 KMFL 041342
ESFMFL
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-050145-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
942 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

...Potential For Heavy Rainfall & Flooding Increasing...

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a broad area of
low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico this morning. At the
time of writing, this area has been give a 40% chance (medium) of
development in the next seven days. As a robust mid-level trough 
advects southeastward across the continental United States, the 
disturbance will gradually lift out of the Bay of Campeche and
slowly advect to the east-northeast/northeast over a period of a 
few days. With the approaching frontal boundary to the north and 
deep tropical moisture streaming northward in association with the
broad area of low pressure, precipitable water values are 
forecast to be in the 2.2 to 2.6 range over South Florida during 
this time frame which is near the maximum climatological value for
this time of year. A saturated airmass with a nearby area of slow
moving low pressure sets the stage for the potential of heavy 
rainfall across South Florida beginning today with a peak window 
period from Sunday through mid/late next week. With persistent and
repetitive rounds of heavy rainfall, urban and potentially flash 
flooding could be realized across the region.

Given the uncertainty with the development of the tropical
disturbance currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center,
there is still the potential for significant forecast changes
regarding potential rainfall totals, time-frame of greatest
impacts as far as rainfall, and the locations that could see the
highest amounts. Users are reminded to follow reliable sources
such as the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center
over the weekend into next week.

If model and forecast trends continue, a Flood Watch may be 
issued at some point this weekend to account for the upcoming 
threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across South Florida.

$$