FGUS73 KABR 311807 ESFABR MNC011-155-SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-037-039-041-045-049-051-057- 059-065-069-075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-081815- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 107 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Elm River Westport 14.0 16.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :James River Columbia 13.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 Stratford 14.0 17.0 18.5 : <5 10 <5 5 <5 <5 Ashton 13.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 6 <5 6 <5 5 Redfield 20.0 22.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Snake Creek Ashton 11.5 13.0 16.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Turtle Creek :Big Sioux River Watertown 10NW 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Watertown Conifer 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Watertown Broadwy 10.5 11.0 13.5 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Castlewood 9.0 11.0 16.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Grand River Little Eagle 15.0 17.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Moreau River White Horse 21.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Bad River Fort Pierre 21.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Minnesota Peever 17.0 22.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Minnesota River Big Stone Lake 971.5 973.0 975.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Elm River Westport 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.6 :James River Columbia 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 Stratford 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 Ashton 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Redfield 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 :Snake Creek Ashton 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 :Turtle Creek :Big Sioux River Watertown 10NW 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 Watertown Conifer 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 Watertown Broadwy 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 Castlewood 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.7 :Grand River Little Eagle 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.8 :Moreau River White Horse 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 4.0 5.1 5.8 :Bad River Fort Pierre 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.7 3.4 4.9 :Little Minnesota Peever 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 :Minnesota River Big Stone Lake 967.7 967.7 967.7 967.7 967.7 967.7 967.7 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Elm River Westport 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 :James River Columbia 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Stratford 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Ashton 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Redfield 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 :Snake Creek Ashton 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 :Turtle Creek :Big Sioux River Watertown 10NW 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Watertown Conifer 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Watertown Broadwy 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Castlewood 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Grand River Little Eagle 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 :Moreau River White Horse 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 :Bad River Fort Pierre 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 :Little Minnesota Peever 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 :Minnesota River These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/abr for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued by the end of November. $$ Parkin