FGUS73 KAPX 251903 ESFAPX MIZ008-015>036-041-042-DDHHMM- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 303 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 07/29/2024 - 10/27/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 10 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 07/29/2024 - 10/27/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.7 13.5 14.6 14.9 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.6 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 3.3 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.7 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.6 4.7 6.2 7.5 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 1.9 2.3 2.9 4.9 6.7 10.2 12.6 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 2.7 2.7 3.1 4.3 5.5 7.2 8.9 IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 07/29/2024 - 10/27/2024 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.1 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/APX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER INFORMATION. THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST. $$ JPB