FGUS73 KDDC 241527 ESFDDC KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101- 119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-185-187-189-195-251600- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 1026 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Smoky Hill River Arnold 12N 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Schoenchen 2E 11.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Big Creek Ellis 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Hays 2SSE 26.0 29.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Saline River Wakeeney 5N 13.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Arkansas River Coolidge 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Syracuse 1S 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Garden City 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Dodge City 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Walnut Creek Nekoma 29.0 31.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Buckner Creek Burdett 7WSW 16.0 21.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pawnee Creek Burdett 6W 30.0 32.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pawnee River Sanford 24.0 27.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rattlesnake Creek Macksville 8SE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Zenith 10NNW 17.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Ninnescah River Pratt 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Crooked Creek Englewood 6.5 8.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cimarron River Forgan 8NNE 5.0 6.0 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Medicine Lodge River Kiowa 2NE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Smoky Hill River Arnold 12N 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.6 4.1 Schoenchen 2E 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.8 4.8 5.6 :Big Creek Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.1 10.3 Hays 2SSE 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 6.6 7.0 :Saline River Wakeeney 5N 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 5.2 6.4 :Arkansas River Coolidge 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 4.5 4.7 Syracuse 1S 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.9 6.0 Garden City 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 6.3 6.3 Dodge City 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 :Walnut Creek Nekoma 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.3 17.7 21.7 :Buckner Creek Burdett 7WSW 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 7.1 9.4 :Pawnee Creek Burdett 6W 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.9 8.6 11.3 :Pawnee River Sanford 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 8.6 10.4 :Rattlesnake Creek Macksville 8SE 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.2 Zenith 10NNW 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.9 :South Fork Ninnescah River Pratt 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.9 5.3 6.4 :Crooked Creek Englewood 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.2 4.4 4.6 :Cimarron River Forgan 8NNE 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.8 4.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Smoky Hill River Arnold 12N 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Schoenchen 2E 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 :Big Creek Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 Hays 2SSE 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Saline River Wakeeney 5N 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued near the 25th of each month. $$