FGUS73 KGLD 221502 ESFGLD NEC057-087-145-KSC039-063-109-137-153-231200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 900 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :South Fork Republican River Benkelman 2ssw 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Arikaree River Haigler 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Benkelman 1sw 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Stratton 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Frenchman Creek Culbertson 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Driftwood Creek McCook 4sw 17.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Mccook 1se 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Beaver Creek Ludell 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cedar Bluffs 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sappa Creek Oberlin 1sw 11.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Norcatur 15ne 17.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Oakley 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Hackberry Creek Gove 19.0 21.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Fork Solomon River Lenora 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :South Fork Republican River Benkelman 2ssw 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 :Arikaree River Haigler 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.6 7.4 :Republican River Benkelman 1sw 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.9 Stratton 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 7.2 :Frenchman Creek Culbertson 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.2 :Driftwood Creek McCook 4sw 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.6 7.7 :Republican River Mccook 1se 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.1 5.8 :Beaver Creek Ludell 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 6.7 Cedar Bluffs 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 5.1 :Sappa Creek Oberlin 1sw 2.7 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.9 7.7 Norcatur 15ne 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 6.2 9.6 :Smoky Hill River Oakley 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 6.4 6.8 :Hackberry Creek Gove 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.8 :North Fork Solomon River Lenora 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.7 4.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :South Fork Republican River Benkelman 2ssw 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 :Arikaree River Haigler 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 :Republican River Benkelman 1sw 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Stratton 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Frenchman Creek Culbertson 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 :Driftwood Creek McCook 4sw 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 :Republican River Mccook 1se 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 :Beaver Creek Ludell 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Cedar Bluffs 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 :Sappa Creek Oberlin 1sw 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Norcatur 15ne 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 :Smoky Hill River Oakley 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 :Hackberry Creek Gove 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 :North Fork Solomon River Lenora 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/gld for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued around November 25, 2024. $$