FGUS73 KILX 012122 ESFILX ILC009-017-025-033-057-079-095-101-113-123-125-129-137-143-147- 155-159-167-169-179-183-203-022300- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Lincoln IL 419 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Illinois River Henry 23.0 24.0 31.0 : 9 13 7 12 <5 <5 Peoria 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 14 22 5 9 <5 <5 Peoria L/D 447.0 449.0 455.0 : 8 14 6 10 <5 <5 Havana 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 27 43 10 18 <5 5 Beardstown 14.0 18.0 28.0 : 28 37 11 16 <5 <5 :Mackinaw River Congerville 13.0 14.0 20.0 : 6 9 5 8 <5 <5 :Spoon River London Mills 15.0 21.0 24.0 : 10 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 Seville 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 8 15 <5 6 <5 <5 :Sangamon River Monticello 13.0 17.0 20.0 : 32 28 <5 <5 <5 <5 Riverton 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 8 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Petersburg 23.0 24.0 33.0 : 9 9 8 7 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Greenview 16.0 17.0 20.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sangamon River Oakford 471.0 472.9 478.5 : 13 14 7 5 <5 <5 Chandlerville 456.6 459.0 462.0 : 18 17 9 6 <5 <5 :Embarras River Lawrenceville 30.0 37.0 41.0 : 42 31 8 6 <5 <5 Ste. Marie 19.0 20.0 27.0 : 27 16 22 13 <5 <5 :Little Wabash River Clay City 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 78 52 19 10 <5 <5 :Vermilion River Danville 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 9 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Illinois River Henry 14.8 14.9 15.4 16.3 17.8 22.5 26.0 Peoria 11.8 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.6 19.5 22.2 Peoria L/D 431.3 431.8 434.1 435.8 440.2 446.7 449.5 Havana 5.0 5.1 7.1 9.9 14.2 17.2 19.7 Beardstown 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.0 15.0 19.9 21.8 :Mackinaw River Congerville 1.1 1.3 2.0 3.4 6.2 8.7 14.8 :Spoon River London Mills 2.8 3.4 4.6 6.7 11.8 15.0 18.3 Seville 5.6 6.2 7.4 9.7 16.2 20.4 24.5 :Sangamon River Monticello 5.6 6.3 7.4 10.7 13.7 14.6 16.9 Riverton 6.5 6.6 8.3 12.6 17.8 21.4 24.2 Petersburg 5.9 6.1 7.2 9.9 15.6 22.0 26.5 :Salt Creek Greenview 1.7 2.1 3.3 5.6 9.5 13.0 16.9 :Sangamon River Oakford 457.4 457.7 459.1 461.9 467.2 472.0 474.1 Chandlerville 444.7 444.9 446.4 449.4 454.9 458.8 460.6 :Embarras River Lawrenceville 20.1 21.6 24.6 28.1 34.2 35.8 38.9 Ste. Marie 4.0 5.7 8.6 13.5 19.5 22.2 22.7 :Little Wabash River Clay City 11.7 13.6 18.9 20.2 21.4 23.0 24.3 :Vermilion River Danville 4.4 5.0 7.3 10.3 12.6 16.7 22.2 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 09/30/2024 - 12/29/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Illinois River Henry 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 Peoria 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 Peoria L/D 430.2 430.1 429.9 429.8 429.6 429.4 429.4 Havana 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Beardstown 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 :Mackinaw River Congerville 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 :Spoon River London Mills 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Seville 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 :Sangamon River Monticello 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 Riverton 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 Petersburg 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 :Salt Creek Greenview 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 :Sangamon River Oakford 456.2 456.2 456.0 455.8 455.7 455.6 455.6 Chandlerville 443.5 443.5 443.3 443.0 442.9 442.8 442.8 :Embarras River Lawrenceville 17.8 17.4 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.3 Ste. Marie 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 :Little Wabash River Clay City 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 :Vermilion River Danville 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/ilx for more weather and water information. $$