FGUS73 KMQT 021457 ESFMQT MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-021806- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 1055 AM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 05/27/2024 - 08/25/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Michigamme River Witch Lake 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Paint River Crystal Falls (Pa 7.0 8.0 9.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black River Bessemer 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ontonagon River Rockland 25.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sturgeon River Sidnaw 12.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Alston 8.0 11.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chocolay River Harvey 10.0 11.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Branch Escanaba River Gwinn 7.0 9.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Middle Branch Escanaba River Humboldt 6.5 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 05/27/2024 - 08/25/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Michigamme River Witch Lake 3.4 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.9 5.7 6.3 :Paint River Crystal Falls (Pa 2.8 2.9 3.3 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 :Black River Bessemer 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.9 4.9 6.8 10.5 :Ontonagon River Rockland 6.2 6.5 7.7 9.3 11.2 13.2 14.6 :Sturgeon River Sidnaw 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.2 6.8 6.9 Alston 4.4 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.3 :Chocolay River Harvey 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.9 5.5 6.2 :East Branch Escanaba River Gwinn 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.8 4.5 5.1 :Middle Branch Escanaba River Humboldt 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.4 4.5 5.0 5.6 In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 05/27/2024 - 08/25/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Michigamme River Witch Lake 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 :Paint River Crystal Falls (Pa 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Black River Bessemer 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 :Ontonagon River Rockland 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 :Sturgeon River Sidnaw 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 Alston 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 :Chocolay River Harvey 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 :East Branch Escanaba River Gwinn 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 :Middle Branch Escanaba River Humboldt 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/mqt for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued around the end of June. $$