FGUS73 KSGF 311437 ESFSGF MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC011-021-021200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Springfield MO 911 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Little Osage River Fulton 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 10 23 8 20 <5 <5 Horton 41.0 45.0 50.0 : 15 43 5 9 <5 <5 :Marmaton River Fort Scott 38.0 42.0 43.0 : 7 10 <5 7 <5 <5 Nevada 20.0 26.0 31.0 : 15 52 13 15 <5 6 :Osage River Taberville 23.0 34.0 46.0 : 12 19 <5 5 <5 <5 :Sac River Caplinger Mills 16.0 19.0 28.0 : 17 25 14 22 5 5 :Gasconade River Hazelgreen 21.0 26.0 30.0 : 9 18 6 7 5 5 :Roubidoux Creek Waynesville 7.0 14.0 20.0 : 31 40 <5 5 <5 <5 :Big Piney Fort Leonard Wood 8.0 15.0 23.0 : 55 55 20 31 <5 <5 :Gasconade River Jerome 15.0 25.0 30.0 : 21 39 6 6 <5 <5 :Spring River Carthage 10.0 14.0 20.0 : <5 17 <5 6 <5 <5 Waco 19.0 30.0 33.0 : <5 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 Baxter Springs 14.0 22.0 30.0 : <5 18 <5 6 <5 <5 :Shoal Creek Joplin 11.5 16.0 18.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Elk River Tiff City 15.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 19 <5 7 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Osage River Fulton 2.5 2.5 2.6 4.0 5.1 22.6 27.0 Horton 27.3 27.4 28.7 32.4 34.6 43.6 45.3 :Marmaton River Fort Scott 6.8 6.9 8.0 11.1 14.9 35.9 39.5 Nevada 2.3 2.4 3.1 8.0 15.0 28.1 29.6 :Osage River Taberville 7.9 7.9 8.1 9.9 12.7 24.7 30.0 :Sac River Caplinger Mills 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.5 11.6 21.5 27.8 :Spring River Carthage 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.8 6.0 9.1 Waco 0.8 0.9 1.6 3.7 7.5 14.6 18.0 Baxter Springs 2.9 3.0 3.2 4.3 5.9 10.3 13.4 :Shoal Creek Joplin 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 3.2 5.8 7.7 :Elk River Tiff City 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.9 5.4 8.4 11.0 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Osage River Fulton 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Horton 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 :Marmaton River Fort Scott 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Nevada 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 :Osage River Taberville 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 :Sac River Caplinger Mills 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued during the last week of November. $$