FGUS73 KTOP 241925 ESFTOP KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177- 197-201-DDHHMM- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 223 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Big Blue River Marysville 35.0 38.2 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 19.0 19.4 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mill Creek Washington 18.0 19.0 35.0 : <5 7 <5 6 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Barnes 16.0 23.0 39.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 8 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 7 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chapman Creek Chapman 19.0 26.0 37.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Lyon Creek Junction City 21.0 35.0 39.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 22.0 32.0 44.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Ft Riley 21.0 26.0 33.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 14.0 17.0 23.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Manhattan 18.0 26.0 42.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Wamego 19.0 26.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Vermillion Creek Wamego 20.0 24.0 30.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Rock Creek Louisville 27.0 33.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Belvue 20.0 28.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cross Creek Rossville 25.0 29.0 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mill Creek Paxico 21.0 31.0 33.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Topeka 26.0 27.0 44.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Soldier Creek Delia 26.0 26.5 29.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Topeka 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Lecompton 17.0 23.8 27.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lawrence 18.0 20.0 29.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 23.0 25.0 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Scandia 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :Republican River Concordia 15.0 18.0 30.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Elk Creek Clyde 14.0 22.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Clay Center 15.0 22.5 28.0 : 7 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Solomon River Glasco 22.0 25.0 34.0 : <5 8 <5 7 <5 <5 Minneapolis 26.0 30.0 38.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Ada 18.0 20.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Solomon River Niles 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 5 21 <5 14 <5 <5 :Saline River Tescott 25.0 29.0 32.0 : <5 11 <5 8 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 27.0 30.0 33.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mud Creek Abilene 15.0 27.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 7 14 5 14 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 13 23 11 16 <5 <5 Quenemo 17.0 24.5 40.5 : 10 13 5 6 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Lyndon 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 30.0 33.0 45.0 : 10 10 <5 6 <5 <5 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 26.0 32.0 34.0 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lane 23.0 24.0 28.5 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :Turkey Creek Seneca 21.0 23.5 40.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Emporia 20.0 24.0 32.0 : <5 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :Neosho River Americus 26.0 27.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Emporia 19.0 19.5 30.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Neosho Rapids 22.0 23.0 44.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 Burlington 27.0 40.0 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Leroy 23.0 23.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Marysville 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.6 16.0 19.7 23.0 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.2 3.9 6.6 10.3 :Mill Creek Washington 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.4 4.6 12.8 15.0 :Little Blue River Barnes 3.9 4.0 4.1 5.4 6.5 11.0 14.2 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 14.3 14.3 14.4 16.5 18.9 24.4 29.7 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 9.2 16.6 22.6 :Chapman Creek Chapman 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.1 6.2 10.4 :Lyon Creek Junction City 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 6.7 10.0 14.0 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 10.4 15.9 :Kansas River Ft Riley 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.4 11.5 15.0 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.5 4.6 6.4 :Kansas River Manhattan 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.2 10.8 14.2 Wamego 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.8 8.0 12.4 :Vermillion Creek Wamego 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 8.1 12.9 :Rock Creek Louisville 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 9.1 10.9 13.9 :Kansas River Belvue 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 6.1 9.8 13.3 :Cross Creek Rossville 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 9.0 14.6 17.0 :Mill Creek Paxico 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.7 7.7 8.4 :Kansas River Topeka 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 7.0 10.7 15.1 :Soldier Creek Delia 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.7 11.1 16.4 :Kansas River Lecompton 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 5.2 9.0 11.7 Lawrence 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.9 12.1 13.7 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.1 6.4 16.6 17.1 :Republican River Scandia 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 2.6 4.2 8.9 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.1 10.3 16.3 :Republican River Concordia 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.0 6.2 8.2 12.8 :Elk Creek Clyde 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 5.8 7.1 7.3 :Republican River Clay Center 6.3 6.3 6.3 7.0 9.4 12.3 17.2 :Solomon River Glasco 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 4.0 6.9 18.9 Minneapolis 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.2 4.5 17.2 :Salt Creek Ada 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 5.5 6.2 :Solomon River Niles 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 5.3 14.1 23.2 :Saline River Tescott 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 6.9 10.6 15.9 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.8 4.9 18.4 22.3 :Mud Creek Abilene 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3.1 5.0 8.6 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 5.2 5.2 5.3 6.3 8.1 20.0 26.9 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.1 5.0 21.5 22.5 Quenemo 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.7 4.6 17.3 23.2 :Salt Creek Lyndon 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 6.9 12.0 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 7.6 29.1 31.7 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 3.3 3.3 3.9 7.5 14.0 24.1 26.4 Lane 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.8 8.3 14.0 21.5 :Turkey Creek Seneca 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 3.5 5.4 9.2 :Cottonwood River Emporia 1.5 1.6 1.8 3.5 5.2 8.4 15.9 :Neosho River Americus 2.8 2.9 3.4 4.4 6.2 8.6 13.8 Emporia 8.7 8.8 9.2 9.9 10.8 12.0 14.3 Neosho Rapids 0.8 0.8 1.3 2.9 5.4 9.3 15.4 Burlington 6.0 6.0 6.6 7.9 9.6 13.0 18.2 Leroy 1.8 1.8 2.6 4.3 7.0 11.4 15.9 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 10/26/2024 - 01/24/2025 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Marysville 12.9 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 :Mill Creek Washington 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 :Little Blue River Barnes 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Chapman Creek Chapman 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 :Lyon Creek Junction City 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Kansas River Ft Riley 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 :Kansas River Manhattan 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 Wamego 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 :Vermillion Creek Wamego 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :Rock Creek Louisville 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 :Kansas River Belvue 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 :Cross Creek Rossville 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 :Mill Creek Paxico 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 :Kansas River Topeka 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Soldier Creek Delia 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 :Kansas River Lecompton 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Lawrence 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 :Republican River Concordia 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Elk Creek Clyde 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 :Republican River Clay Center 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 :Solomon River Glasco 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Minneapolis 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 :Salt Creek Ada 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 :Solomon River Niles 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 :Saline River Tescott 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 :Mud Creek Abilene 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Quenemo 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 :Salt Creek Lyndon 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Lane 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 :Turkey Creek Seneca 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water information. The next outlook will be issued near the end of November. $$