FGUS74 KFWD 211449 ESFFWD Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 849 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Brazos River Basin in North Texas... The National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in North Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Brazos River near South Bend has a Flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the South Bend forecast point will rise above 7.7 feet during the next 90 days. Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid 11/20/2024 - 02/18/2025 Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Big Sandy Creek Breckenridge 24.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 7.4 9.1 9.8 23.4 Upper Brazos River South Bend 21.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.6 7.7 9.3 10.8 13.3 18.2 Palo Pinto 18.0 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.2 5.1 5.5 6.0 8.0 11.4 Dennis 25.0 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.7 6.4 6.9 7.4 9.7 13.5 Glen Rose 29.0 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.9 8.5 8.8 9.2 10.8 13.1 Aquilla 29.0 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.2 10.9 Paluxy River Glen Rose 22.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.9 Nolan River Blum 24.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.5 Lower Brazos River Waco 27.0 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.3 6.5 7.1 10.4 Highbank 35.0 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.2 5.0 5.4 6.0 7.2 11.0 North Bosque River Hico 24.0 5.2 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.0 8.9 Clifton 23.0 2.3 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.4 6.0 7.0 9.5 Valley Mills 36.0 6.7 8.3 9.0 9.6 9.8 10.2 11.4 12.2 15.7 Hog Creek Crawford 14.0 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.9 Middle Bosque River McGregor 20.0 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 5.0 5.3 7.4 Sabana River De Leon 19.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.8 4.8 9.5 14.8 Leon River De Leon 12.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.9 4.9 7.4 12.3 Hamilton 26.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.8 10.0 12.7 Gatesville 22.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.4 6.6 7.5 8.7 11.0 Belton 14.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 5.1 Cowhouse Creek Pidcoke 20.0 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.9 5.6 6.8 8.3 Lampasas River Kempner 18.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.5 3.5 4.0 Little River Little River 30.0 3.4 3.7 4.1 5.0 5.4 6.0 6.3 7.8 11.3 Rockdale 30.0 5.5 5.8 6.5 7.3 8.4 9.1 11.1 14.8 23.2 Cameron 30.0 2.1 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.9 5.5 7.1 10.6 18.8 Navasota River Groesbeck 7.0 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 4.9 8.0 8.6 Easterly 19.0 5.3 6.6 7.4 9.5 11.2 16.5 20.5 21.6 22.5 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Graham 1075.7 1075.8 1075.8 1076.1 1076.3 1076.4 1076.5 Hubbard Cr Lk 1170.6 1170.6 1170.6 1170.6 1170.7 1170.8 1171.0 Lk Leon 1375.0 1375.0 1375.0 1375.0 1375.0 1375.0 1375.3 20% 10% --- --- Lk Graham 1076.6 1076.8 Hubbard Cr Lk 1171.4 1172.2 Lk Leon 1375.7 1376.3 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lk Palo Pinto 867.0 867.0 867.0 867.1 867.2 867.2 867.3 867.6 868.3 Lk Pat Cleburne 730.9 730.9 731.0 731.0 731.1 731.3 731.5 732.0 733.0 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: water.noaa.gov/wfo/FWD Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$