FGUS74 KMAF 172021 ESFMAF TXC033-227-335-415-182030- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 321 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado and Pecos River Basins in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico... The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Colorado River Basin in West Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Colorado River at Colorado City has a flood stage of 15.0 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 5.5 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid [ 10/20/2024 - 01/18/2025 ] Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Colorado River Colorado City 15.0 4.1 4.2 4.8 5.0 5.5 6.4 6.9 8.4 10.8 Deep Creek Dunn 1W 14.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 5.2 Beals Creek Westbrook 11S 22.5 2.6 3.4 3.6 3.7 5.2 6.0 7.6 9.9 15.4 Pecos River Artesia 6E 12.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 6.2 Carlsbad 9NW 20.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Carlsbad 2E 14.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 Malaga 3ESE 30.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.4 Malaga 10S 20.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 Sheffield 3ESE 28.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 Rio Penasco Dayton 2WNW 20.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Fourmile Draw Lakewood 4NNW 12.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Rocky Arroyo Lakewood 7S 12.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Dark Canyon Carlsbad 15.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Black River Malaga 5W 18.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 Delaware River Red Bluff 11NW 26.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.3 Independence Creek Sheffield 18SSE 11.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.9 Lake JB Thomas 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2235.4 2235.4 2235.4 2235.4 2235.4 2235.4 2235.8 2236.7 2239.2 Lake Colorado City 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2064.7 2064.7 2064.7 2064.7 2064.7 2064.7 2064.9 2065.7 2067.5 Champion Creek Reservoir 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2066.2 2066.2 2066.2 2066.2 2066.2 2066.2 2066.3 2066.9 2067.4 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=maf Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ 44