FGUS74 KSJT 171738 ESFSJT TXC049-081-083-095-151-235-253-267-281-307-319-327-333-399-411-417-431- 441-451-181745- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long range probabilistic outlook for the Colorado River Basin in West Central Texas The National Weather Service office in San Angelo Texas has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for The Colorado River Basin in west central Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: the Colorado River near Silver has a flood stage of 22 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the forecast point at Silver will rise above 4.0 feet during the next 90 Days. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 10/16/2024 - 01/14/2025 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Colorado River Silver 22.0 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.4 5.4 6.7 10.7 Robert Lee 33.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.7 Ballinger 18.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.8 7.8 12.4 Stacy 40.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.6 6.0 Winchell 26.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.9 6.2 14.3 San Saba 30.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.9 7.3 17.4 Elm Creek Ballinger 7.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.4 North Concho River Sterling City 17.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 12.8 Carlsbad 12.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 9.4 Middle Concho River Tankersley 18.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 8.3 Spring Creek Tankersley 14.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Dove Creek Knickerbocker 26.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.2 4.2 South Concho River Christoval 10.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 Pecan Creek San Angelo 10.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 Concho River San Angelo 26.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.1 4.2 Paint Rock 26.0 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.8 15.1 Pecan Bayou Cross Cut 33.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 6.5 8.3 17.0 Brownwood 20.0 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 7.6 9.0 12.1 Mullin 45.0 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 9.5 13.1 20.7 Brady Creek Brady 26.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 San Saba River Menard 18.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 9.3 Brady 30.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.3 5.3 8.5 San Saba 24.0 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 4.1 5.0 9.7 24.0 North Llano River Junction 21.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.4 9.3 10.6 Llano River Junction 16.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 6.2 10.2 Mason 23.0 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.4 7.1 8.9 11.8 15.9 Beaver Creek Mason 12.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.4 7.9 8.6 9.1 9.8 11.3 Oak Creek Reservoir 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1982.8 1982.9 1982.9 1982.9 1983.0 1983.1 1983.1 1983.8 1985.7 Lake Coleman 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1717.2 1717.2 1717.2 1717.3 1717.5 1717.5 1718.0 1718.2 1719.2 Lake Brownwood 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1424.7 1424.7 1424.7 1424.7 1424.7 1424.9 1425.3 1426.0 1427.1 Brady Creek Reservoir 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1730.9 1731.0 1731.0 1731.0 1731.1 1731.1 1731.2 1731.4 1736.4 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?sjt Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$