FGUS76 KEKA 180123
ESFEKA
CAZ101>106-108>115-181515-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eureka CA
523 PM PST Sun Nov 17 2024

...POTENTIAL FLOODING: A prolonged period of moderate to heavy 
rainfall mid to late week will increase the risk of flooding and 
generate rapid river rises...

* WHAT...A strong and prolonged atmospheric river will impact NW
  California mid to late week. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall
  will bring the potential for rapid rises on rivers, streams and
  creeks across the region. Rain will be heaviest on Wednesday
  with 2 to 4 inches of rain. High peaks in the King Range could 
  see 6 to 9 inches of rain over 24 hours. Most models show more 
  moderate but persistent rain continuing Thursday through next 
  Saturday with most likely rainfall of 1 to 3 inches each day. 
  Total Storm amounts could easily reach between 6 and 14 inches 
  over 4 days, with up to 21 inches for the King Range.

* WHERE...The greatest risk is for Humboldt and Del Norte 
  Counties where soils are already near saturation. Significant 
  rain are also expected for Mendocino and Lake Counties, though 
  generally drier soils will reduce the flood risk. Much of the 
  precipitation in Trinity County will likely fall as snow with 
  snow levels in the eastern half of the county as low as 2500 
  feet.

* WHEN...Greatest risk of heavy rain during the day on Wednesday. 
  More moderate but prolonged rain Thursday through Saturday. The 
  forecast is more uncertain further out. Long range models show the 
  potential for rain to continue into Thanksgiving Week.

* IMPACTS...Such rain amounts will greatly increase the risk of
  flooding, especially for the northern half of the area where
  soils have already been saturated by previous rain events.
  Expect flooding on in low lying areas, areas with poor drainage,
  and increased risk of debris on roadways. Rivers, streams and
  creeks will rapidly rise. The Eel River is around 20 percent
  chance of exceeding flood stage Thursday evening. The Mad River
  and the Russian River are showing 5 to 10 percent of reaching
  flood stage. 

* Stay tuned to the weather forecast over the next couple days as 
  forecast confidence and details will likely increase. Beyond rain, 
  this storm is also expected to bring widespread damaging wind.

$$
JHW/ZVS