FLUS74 KOUN 090212 CCA
AWUOUN
AREA WEATHER UPDATE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 
853 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013
...WARNING DECISION UPDATE FOR NWRN/WRN OKLAHOMA...
LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE 
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 
REPORTS OF WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. STRONG WINDS...60 TO 70 MPH WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF 
QUARTERS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DEWPOINTS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWESTERN 
OKLAHOMA...FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH 8 PM. WHILE ALONG THE 
TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...DEWPOINTS HAVE MAINTAINED IN THE LOWER 50S. 
WITH THE WIDE DEWPOINT SPREADS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK...LOW LEVEL 
LAPSE RATES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE...8 TO 8.5 C/KM. THIS TIED WITH MODEST 
SFC-600MB THETA E DIFFERENTIALS OF 10 TO 16 K...WINDS REMAIN THE 
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE WIND THREAT WILL BE 
GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE SFC TEMP/DEWPOINT 
SPREADS ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 F. THIS FALLS IN LINE WITH MANY OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MORE PRONOUNCED
MCS DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER INTO NORTHERN TX...
FOLLOWING THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
PANHANDLE.
FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS MERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BEGINNING TO CAUSE 
NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FROM VANCE AFB TO LEEDEY. AT THE 
MOMENT...NONE OF THIS IS SEVERE. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE BEGINNINGS OF 
THE LINE/COMPLEX EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OKC METRO TONIGHT. AT 
THE MOMENT...09/00Z SOUNDING FROM KOUN HAS FAIRLY MODEST LOW LEVEL 
LAPSE RATES OF APPROXIMATELY 6 TO 7 C/KM. OVERALL...AS THIS LINE MOVES 
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...MUCAPE WILL PERSIST FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG WITH 
NW 0-3KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KTS...ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A POSSIBLE MCS/LINE 
OF CONVECTION PERSISTING OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL OK. WIND WILL REMAIN 
THE OVERALL CONCERN. HOWEVER...HAIL COULD BE AN ISSUE AS ELEVATED 
PARCELS ON NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS PRODUCE JUST OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE -20 TO
-30 RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVING AFTER 
SUNSET...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LESSEN...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING 
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD RESULT IN INCREASED 
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
$$
KURTZ