FNUS73 KPAH 201653 FWSPAH Spot Forecast for Brown Barrens Burn...IDNR National Weather Service Paducah KY 1053 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on November 20. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Dispersion today will be excellent with west to northwest winds gusting to near 30 mph. Humidity will drop into the 25-30% range this afternoon with mixing heights up to 8000 feet. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). CWR.................0 percent. Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 57. RH..................55 percent at ignition...Min 27 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Winds northwest at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 28 mph. Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 30 mph shifting to the west 31 to 32 mph early in the afternoon, then decreasing to 20 to 21 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair /42500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...very good /102500 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent (187100 knot-ft) early in the afternoon, then decreasing to poor (18300 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............53 54 55 56 57 56 55 55 51 RH..............55 50 43 35 30 29 30 30 34 20 FT wind dir..NW NW W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..10 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 20 FT wind gust.22 23 24 26 28 28 28 26 23 Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 3.4 4.9 7.4 8.1 7.9 6.9 2.1 1.1 Transp wind dir.NW NW NW W W W W W W Transp wind spd.21 21 24 30 32 31 31 21 20 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..43 62 103 193 226 213 187 38 18 Ventrate Cat....FR GD VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL PR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). CWR.................0 percent. Temperature.........Min 35. RH..................Max 64 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......West winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6500 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............47 44 43 41 41 40 40 39 39 38 37 37 RH..............42 49 51 55 55 57 57 57 57 59 56 54 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..12 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 20 FT wind gust.21 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 18 20 21 Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W Transp wind spd.17 18 16 15 16 15 15 16 16 16 17 20 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 10 15 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). CWR.................0 percent. Temperature.........Max 46. RH..................Min 41 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 12 to 17 mph with gusts to around 29 mph. Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 21 mph increasing to 25 to 33 mph early in the morning, then decreasing to around 22 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (116300 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to poor (30400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (126400 knot-ft) in the afternoon in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky cover.......MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR CLEAR Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............36 37 41 43 46 45 RH..............56 61 50 47 43 47 20 FT wind dir..W NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT wind spd..12 16 17 16 16 14 20 FT wind gust.23 26 29 28 28 25 Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 2.8 Transp wind dir.W NW NW NW NW NW Transp wind spd.20 31 32 29 29 25 Haines index....3 3 3 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..17 116 119 102 96 61 Ventrate Cat....POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD GOOD GOOD $$ Forecaster...TREVINO Requested by...Daniel Brown Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2427061.0/PAH .DELDT 11/20/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL daniel.b.brown@illinois.gov