FNUS74 KMAF 241206 FWSMAF Spot Forecast for Cottonwood Rx...BLM National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 706 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on October 24. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Relative humidity will bottom out below 15% this afternoon, and recovery overnight will be poor. However, a cold front will move through the burn site 3-5 AM MDT Friday, resulting in an abrupt, increasing, and gusty wind shift to the NNE. As a result of cooler temperatures Friday, minimum relative humidity will remain above 15%. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). LAL.................No Tstms. Max temperature.....Around 92. Min humidity........13 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the west 10 to 12 mph with gusts to around 18 mph. Mixing height.......9500 ft AGL increasing to 12700 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph shifting to the west 16 to 17 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (48000 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (132300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............60 59 69 83 91 92 RH..............44 40 32 20 16 13 20 FT wind dir..S W S S SW W 20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 8 10 12 20 FT wind gust. 8 10 12 16 18 Mix hgt (ft)....800 700 700 4800 12500 12500 Transp wind dir.SW W W SW W W Transp wind spd.7 7 7 12 17 16 Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 4 4 48 187 176 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR EXNT EXNT .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). LAL.................No Tstms. Min temperature.....Around 59. Max humidity........40 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 9 mph with gusts to around 16 mph shifting to the northwest 9 to 13 mph with gusts to around 19 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 12 to 15 mph shifting to the north around 20 mph early in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (119800 knot-ft) decreasing to fair (14700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (7100 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky cover.......CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............90 77 72 67 RH..............14 21 23 27 20 FT wind dir..W W W NW 20 FT wind spd..9 7 7 9 20 FT wind gust.16 12 11 14 Mix hgt (ft)....9200 800 800 800 Transp wind dir.W W W N Transp wind spd.15 14 13 10 Haines index....4 4 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..120 10 9 7 Ventrate Cat....VYGD POOR POOR POOR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). LAL.................No Tstms. Max temperature.....Around 77. Min humidity........24 percent. Wind (20 ft)........North winds 13 to 20 mph decreasing to 8 to 10 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 33 mph. Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 22 to 28 mph decreasing to 10 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (48400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky cover.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............63 61 69 76 RH..............31 40 31 24 20 FT wind dir..N N N N 20 FT wind spd..16 20 16 10 20 FT wind gust.23 26 21 17 Mix hgt (ft)....900 1600 2900 3700 Transp wind dir.N N N N Transp wind spd.28 26 18 13 Haines index....5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..21 37 46 39 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR POOR $$ Forecaster...Deberry Requested by...Matthew Thomas Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2424783.0/MAF .DELDT 10/24/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL mdthomas@blm.gov