FQZA31 FAPR 211330 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 21ST OF NOVEMBER 2024 AT 13:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 212200 TO 222200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/3/20242025 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI) 2.A POSITION 2024/11/21 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 56.5 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY-SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35/40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/11/22 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 55.3 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 145 SW: 120 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 0 24H: 2024/11/22 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 54.0 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 70 SW: 45 NW: 0 30H: 2024/11/22 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 53.5 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 0 42H: 2024/11/23 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.6 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 0 54H: 2024/11/23 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 52.2 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 66H: 2024/11/24 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 52.2 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. TRISTAN: Cyclonic 35 in the north-west towards mid-period, drifting to the central parts by end of period. 2. CAPE WEST: W to NW 35 in the south, drifting to the south-east towards mid-period. 3. CAPE EAST: W to NW 35 in the south-west towards mid-period. 4. DURBAN EAST: NE to E 35 in the north-east towards end of period. (Also see TC BHEKI information above). 5. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 to 40 in the south-east. (Also see TC BHEKI information above). 6. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to NW 35 to 40 in the west and south-west by mid-period, spreading to the south-east by end of period. SYNOPTIC CHART 12:00Z ===================== High 1019 hPa 29s02e, High 1024 hPa 30s79e Low 999 hPa 43s02e 1. Cold Front: 32s11w 36s07w into 43s02e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : SE to E 10 to 15. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 but SW to W 05 to 10 in the east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the east. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the central parts until mid-period, otherwise S to SE 05 to 15, reaching 20 to 30 in the extreme south-west, drifting to the south and west by mid-period, while becoming S to SW 20 to 30 from the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the south-west. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-west, with SW to S swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south-east, but variable 05 to 10 in the extreme south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the extreme north-east at times. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W): WIND : NW 15 to 25 in the east at first, otherwise S to SW 10 to 20 reaching 25 in the south-east at first but SE 10 to 20 in the western half, becoming Cyclonic 25 to 35 in the north-west towards mid-period, drifting to the central parts by end of period. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers, except in the north- east. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m in the south-east until mid-period, with W to SW swell, while becoming with S to SE swell in the north- west, drifting to the central parts by end of period. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15 in the north-east at first, otherwise W to NW 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 35 in the south, drifting to the south-east towards mid-period, but S to SW 15 to 25 in the south-west, spreading to the east and north-east towards mid- period, and to the south-east by end of period. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the south- west, drifting to the south-east by mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the southern half, reaching 3.5 to 4.5m in the south- west, drifting to the south-east by mid-period, with W to SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : SE to S 10 to 20 in the west and variable 05 to 10 in the east and extreme north-west at first, otherwise W to NW 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 35 in the south-west towards mid-period but NE to N 10 to 20 in the north, and W to SW 10 to 20 in the north-west, reaching 25 to 30 in the south-west towards mid- period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the central parts but in the west by mid-period, spreading to the south and south-east by end of period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south and west, reaching 3.5 to 4.5m in the south- west, with SW to S swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the extreme south-west, otherwise NE to E 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the north, but in the west from mid-period, and 35 in the north-east towards end of period. (Also see TC BHEKI information above). VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-east, where it will become poor to very poor in widespread showers and rain towards end of period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the north with S swell, becoming 3.5 to 4.5m in the north-east towards mid-period, with NE swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the central parts, otherwise SE to S 05 to 15 reaching 20 to 30 in the extreme south-east but NE 05 to 10 in the north-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-east, with S to SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : NE to E 15 to 25 in the extreme south-west, otherwise SE to S 10 to 20, but Cyclonic 30 to 40 in the south-east. (Also see TC BHEKI information above). VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain, but poor to very poor in widespread showers and rain in the south-east. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south, but 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-east, with NE to E swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 15 to 25, reaching 30 to 40 in the west and south-west by mid-period, spreading to the south-east by end of period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the south, but in the north-west by mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m with SW swell, but 4.5 to 5.5m in the west and south-west by mid-period, spreading to the south-east by end of period, with W to NW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 24/11/21 AT 0600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE FORCE 8 OVER KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/11/21 AT 0000UTC - HIGH 1023 HPA NEAR 31S/77E, EXTENDING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ON 31S/77E, 33S/63E, 36S/36E. SLOW-MOVING. - SLIGHTLY ACTIVE UNDULATING FRONT NEAR 35S OVER WAM AND AMS. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/11/21 AT 0600UTC TO 24/11/22 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) FEW SHOWERS. WIND: VARIABLE OR ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4. SEA : MODERATE LOCALLY ROUGH OVER FAR SOUTHERN. SLIGHT SW SWELL. VIS : MAINLY GOOD BUT MODERATE IN SHOWERS. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) FEW SHOWERS. WIND: VARIABLE OR ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4 SETTING-UP W 5 OVER SOUTHERN AREA. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. SW SWELL, 2 TO 3 M FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VIS : MAINLY GOOD BUT MODERATE IN SHOWERS. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RARE SHOWERS AT THE BEGINNING, SHOWERS AT THE END OVER SOUTH-WESTERN AREA. WIND: WESTERLY 5 TO 6, LOCALLY 7 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN AREA, DECREASING WESTERLY 4 TO 6 AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. W SWELL, 3 TO 4 M. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND: WESTERLY 5 TO 7, LOCALLY 8 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN AREA. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. W OR WSW SWELL, 3 TO 4 M. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.