FQZA81 FAPR 210830 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII EAST OF 20E. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 21ST OF NOVEMBER 2024 AT 08:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 211000 TO 221000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/3/20242025 1.A FILLING UP 3 (BHEKI) 2.A POSITION 2024/11/21 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 57.5 E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY-SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/11/21 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 55.5 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 55 NW: 55 24H: 2024/11/22 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 54.2 E, WIND MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 0 36H: 2024/11/22 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 53.5 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 0 48H: 2024/11/23 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 52.6 E, WIND MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 0 60H: 2024/11/23 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 52.2 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 72H: 2024/11/24 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 52.2 E, WIND MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. MADAGASCAR EAST: Cyclonic 35 in the south-east by mid-period. (Also see TC BHEKI information above). SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z ===================== High 1022 hPa 32s07e, High 1025 hPa 31s77e Low 997 hPa 42s03w AREA FORECAST: ============== CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : SE to S 10 to 20 in the west, otherwise W to NW 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the south-west towards end of period but NE to E 10 to 20 in the north, and variable 05 to 10 in the east. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the central parts but in the north-west until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south and north-west, reaching 3.5m in the south- west, with SW to S swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : NE to E 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the north but in the south-west at first. It will become variable 05 to 10 in the extreme south-west by mid-period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north-east but in the west until mid-period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the north with S swell, becoming 3.5 to 4.5m in the north-east towards mid-period, with long period NE swell. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the central parts, otherwise SE to S 05 to 15 reaching 20 to 30 in the extreme south-east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-east, with S to SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST (10S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : NE 15 to 25 in the extreme south-west, otherwise SE to S 10 to 20, reaching 25 in the south-east, where it will become Cyclonic 30 to 35 by mid-period. (Also see TC BHEKI information above). VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the south-east, rising to 4.5 to 5.5m in the second half of the period, with a long period NE to E swell. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to NW 10 to 20, reaching 25 to 30 in the south-east at first, but in the west towards mid-period, spreading to the east towards end of period. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and rain in the north and south. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5 to 5.5m in the south-east at first, with W to SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) 24/11/21 AT 0600UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE). PART 1: WARNING - GALE FORCE 8 OVER KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, 24/11/21 AT 0000UTC - HIGH 1023 HPA NEAR 31S/77E, EXTENDING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AXIS ON 31S/77E, 33S/63E, 36S/36E. SLOW-MOVING. - SLIGHTLY ACTIVE UNDULATING FRONT NEAR 35S OVER WAM AND AMS. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/11/21 AT 0600UTC TO 24/11/22 AT 0600UTC WAM (30S/40S, 50E/65E) FEW SHOWERS. WIND: VARIABLE OR ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4. SEA : MODERATE LOCALLY ROUGH OVER FAR SOUTHERN. SLIGHT SW SWELL. VIS : MAINLY GOOD BUT MODERATE IN SHOWERS. AMS (30S/40S, 65E/80E) FEW SHOWERS. WIND: VARIABLE OR ANTICLOCKWISE 2 TO 4 SETTING-UP W 5 OVER SOUTHERN AREA. SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH. SW SWELL, 2 TO 3 M FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VIS : MAINLY GOOD BUT MODERATE IN SHOWERS. CRO (40S/50S, 50E/65E) RARE SHOWERS AT THE BEGINNING, SHOWERS AT THE END OVER SOUTH-WESTERN AREA. WIND: WESTERLY 5 TO 6, LOCALLY 7 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN AREA, DECREASING WESTERLY 4 TO 6 AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. W SWELL, 3 TO 4 M. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS. KER (40S/50S, 65E/80E) SCATTERED SHOWERS WIND: WESTERLY 5 TO 7, LOCALLY 8 WITH SEVERE GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN AREA. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. W OR WSW SWELL, 3 TO 4 M. VIS : POOR IN PRECIPITATIONS.