FXAK67 PAJK 111833
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
933 AM AKST Wed Dec 11 2024

.UPDATE...Minor update for wind directions and speeds for Lynn
Canal and Clarence Strait tonight into to tonight. 


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 613 AM Wed Dec 11...

SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...Main drivers of our weather over 
the next 24 hours will be a combination of a 500mb ridge slowly 
moving east over and eventually departing the Panhandle and a 
negatively tilted longwave trough upstream of the aforementioned 
ridge axis in the Gulf. Moisture embedded in the southerly flow 
will continue to stream in over the Panhandle while an occluding 
front at the surface slowly approaches. Expect elevated 
southeasterly winds to continue with periods of Gale-force winds as
the front approaches and moves over the area through tonight as 
the low makes landfall along the Northeastern Gulf Coast. Winds 
will become southwesterly Thursday, decreasing in speed, with the 
southerly seas becoming southwest swell.

Regarding precipitation, it’s going to rain, with the exception 
of higher elevation portions of the Haines and Klondike
international border-crossing highways, seeing a few inches of 
snow. 24-hour rainfall totals continue to be relatively
unimpressive.

LONG TERM...Westerly flow on Thursday will mark the post frontal
environment with decreasing showers across the panhandle along
with winds and seas diminishing. Expect PoP to be on a slow
decline through Friday night as the main moisture tap slowly moves
eastward. 

Looking toward the weekend, downward motion aloft in the central
Yukon will push south, increasing northerly gradients and causing
northerly outflow conditions. Near gales out of interior passes,
including Taiya Inlet, Taku Inlet, and the upper arms of Glacier 
Bay will continue through the weekend. Not expecting much below
normal temperatures nor stronger than gale force winds due to a
lack of a well established cold pool near Whitehorse. Regardless,
there will be colder temperatures, windier conditions, and
clearing skies.

AVIATION...Flying conditions will vary between VFR and MVFR as a 
frontal system continues to move toward the panhandle creating 
periods of rain. Throughout Wednesday, conditions will prevail VFR 
with times of MVFR possible with heavier precipitation. LLWS of 
30 to 40 kts are still possible as the front approaches. By 
Wednesday night, prevailing MVFR is expected with as the frontal 
system reaches the panhandle and increases precipitation rates. 

MARINE.../Through Tonight/...Eastern Gulf: Southeasterly seas 
continue to dominate the eastern Gulf, with heights increasing 
back to near 20ft and peak energy spectrum focused at 10-13 
seconds along the northeastern Gulf coast through today. As the 
low makes landfall early Thursday morning, we transition to swell,
with heights dropping below 12ft by Thursday afternoon. 

Inner Channels: Elevated southerly winds continue across the 
Inner Channels reaching their climax of strong breezes with gusts
to Gale-force through today. Speeds diminish precipitously Thursday
before we transition to northerly outflow Gales by Saturday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-662>664-671-672. 
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-661. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...99

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