FXAK69 PAFG 032340
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A warm front moving north over the Alaska Range will
bring increased cloud cover, warming temperatures, and light
precipitation to the Interior and West Coast through Friday, with
the precipitation quickly skirting through the central and eastern
Interior overnight tonight. Precipitation should fall mostly as
snow, but a brief period of ice pellets or sleet is possible near
and just north of the Alaska Range for areas like Fairbanks and 
McGrath. Blizzard Conditions will continue along the eastern
Arctic Coast through Wednesday evening. Windy conditions near
Delta Junction will continue through Wednesday evening as well. A
similar but weaker system will move north of the Alaska Range 
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Impacts by Region:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A warm front will move north over the Alaska Range overnight
  tonight, bringing increased cloud cover, warmer temperatures,
  and light precipitation. Precipitation will be mostly snow, but
  areas from Fairbanks south to the Alaska Range may see a very
  brief period of mixed precipitation. In this scenario, snow
  would mix with sleet or ice pellets. Accumulations will be 3
  inches or less through Thursday night, with the highest amounts
  in the northwest interior near Bettles and Hughes. Fairbanks
  will see little if any snow accumulation.

- A strong Tanana Jet currently blowing near Delta Junction. Wind
  Advisory is in effect for Delta Junction for east winds today 
  and tonight and north of Trims Camp for southerly gap winds 
  starting tonight and lasting through tomorrow.

- Northeast winds over the summits of the Interior diminish this
  evening ahead of the warm front moving over the area.

- A similar shortwave will lift over the Alaska Range on Thursday,
  bringing likely lighter precipitation and weaker gap winds than
  the shortwave overnight tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A frontal boundary will bring light snow to the West Coast
  Wednesday through Friday and bring a potential for mixed
  precipitation from the Lower Yukon Valley to McGrath late
  Wednesday into Thursday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect
  for the McGrath area for possible ice accumulation of a light
  glaze. Elsewhere, ice accumulation is not expected. For areas
  that see precipitation other than snow, ice pellets or sleet is
  the most likely precipitation type.

- Northerly winds 25 to 35 mph will continue through the Bering
  Strait through Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Ground blizzard conditions are occurring from Point Thomson east
  and are expected to continue through Wednesday evening. Winds
  may gust as high as 50 mph. The worst conditions are expected
  near Kaktovik.

- Light snow is expected in the Brooks Range from early Wednesday
  morning through Thursday. Accumulations will be 2 inches or
  less.

Analysis and Forecast/Confidence Discussion...A 970 mb low near
Kodiak has a sprawling warm front moving north of the Alaska Range
this evening. High pressure persists over the Arctic and northeast
interior. Southerly flow is in place aloft over the central and
eastern Mainland with east flow across the West Coast. The warm
front will lift over the Alaska Range overnight tonight and into
the northern Interior. This will merge with a secondary front over
southwest Alaska on Wednesday afternoon, bringing light snow to
most of the West Coast through Thursday night. A similar but
weaker shortwave will move north over the Alaska Range on 
Thursday. Light flow aloft and warmer temperatures follow the
shortwave, with quiet weather expected going into the weekend.

Forecast changes today were adjustments to short term winds to
line up with observations, especially near the Alaska Range.
Minimal changes to the precipitation type forecast. Cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory for the Dalton Highway Summits. Windy
conditions remain, but visibility has improved.

Extended Forecast For Days 4-7...Forecast models have come into
better agreement for a strong system to move along the Eastern
Aleutians on Sunday and Monday, spreading significant
precipitation to the West Coast and Western Interior. Strong
southerly flow to the east will bring another round of strong
south winds through Alaska Range passes Monday into Tuesday.
Increasing chances for light snow across most of the area next
week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ852.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-811-813-857>859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-817-854-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-850-853-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ860.
&&

$$

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