FXCA20 KWBC 061854 PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 154 PM EST FRI DEC 06 2024 FORECAST BULLETIN 06 DEC 2024 AT 1900 UTC: NOTE: ALL TROPICAL DESK PRODUCTS WILL BE PAUSED UNTIL MONDAY DECEMBER 16TH. APOLOGIES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. ON FRIDAY...THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS SEEING TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS...NEARING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS STRENGTHENING...FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS AND THE WEAKENING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS THEY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED THROUGH TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTH BAHAMAS...EAST CUBA...AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA BY FRIDAY EVENING. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ENTERING TAMAULIPAS...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NUEVO LEON TO NORTH CHIHUAHUA. DUE TO THE LOW AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN MEXICO AND THE NORTH BAHAMAS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OVER THE REGION AND WITH THE PROPAGATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE THE INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION...ENHANCED BY THE SUBSIDENT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL JET OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON FRIDAY...HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS WITH MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...AND HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FROM NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND THE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL REGIONS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTH COSTA RICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. EAST CUBA...TURKS AND CAICOS...INAGUA-THE BAHAMAS...AND JAMAICA...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...A SMALLER PORTION OF NORTHWEST HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE THE REST OF NORTH HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. NORTH HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND A SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. NORTHEAST HONDURAS COULD SEE A DECREASE WITH AMOUNTS OF 20-35MM. NORTH HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN...MOIST TROUGHS ARE PROPAGATING IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND WILL BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO/VI....AS WELL AS THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ABC ISLANDS. ON SATURDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE-LIKE TROUGH ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH HIGHER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...IT IS POSSIBLE THE ISLANDS MIGHT SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION INTO THE ABC ISLANDS. ON SUNDAY...THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE PUERTO RICO/VI...THE ABC ISLANDS...AND NORTH VENEZUELAN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS DOMINATING OVER THE CONTINENT...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EAST BRASIL IS RETROGRADING WEST OVER BRASIL OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ FROM THE GUIANAS...AND NORTH BRASIL...THESE REGIONS CAN EXPECT VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE BOLIVIAN HIGH AND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL BRASIL TO WEST BRASIL/NORTH PERU BY SUNDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETS OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE TO NORTH PERU AND WEST BRASIL...FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION. IN WEST COLOMBIA...THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. MODERATE PRECIPITATION OF 20-45MM ARE POSSIBLE EVERYDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. ON FRIDAY...WEST AMAZONAS/NORTH PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM AMAPA TO EAST AMAZONAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...WEST AMAZONAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE EAST AMAZONAS AND PARA...AND AMAPA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SUNDAY...MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH PERU AND WEST AMAZONAS...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH BRASIL. AMAPA AND NORTH PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC NONE CASTELLANOS...(WPC) $$