FXUS61 KAKQ 040834 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 334 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front approaches from the upper midwest today, and crosses the local area Thursday morning. Strong winds are expected on Thursday, with a few light showers possible early. Cold and dry conditions prevail Thursday afternoon through Saturday as high pressure gradually builds in from the west. A significant warming trend begins Sunday, with above normal temperatures and chances for showers expected Monday through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cold and dry again today, SW winds become breezy this aftn and continue overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. The latest analysis indicates a NW flow aloft with the upper trough axis now off the east coast. At the sfc, strong high pressure (>1030mb) is centered from the eastern Gulf coast NE into the Carolina and southern VA coastal plain. The sky is clear and very cold temperatures prevail with many areas in the mid to upper teens, with mid 20s to around 30F at the coast in SE VA and NE NC. For today, the sfc high will shift to the E-SE, becoming centered across north FL by this evening. Meanwhile, intense sfc low pressure moves E-SE, and becomes centered a bit to the N of Lake Huron by this evening, lifting a warm front through the upper OH Valley into the NE CONUS. The tightening pressure gradient will allow for increasing SW winds by this aftn, which will yield a modest aftn warmup with highs into the mid 40s to near 50F (though it will feel rather chilly with winds gusting to 20-30 mph). Mostly sunny overall, with increasing aftn mid/high clouds over northern portions of the FA. The pressure gradient remains tight overnight, with a gusty SW wind continuing even over inland areas (gusts to 20-25 mph inland and to 25-35 mph near the coast). As such, temperatures will be much milder with lows mainly in the mid/upper 30s to around 40F tonight. A few light rain showers may reach into our far northern counties overnight, but any precip will be very light. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Strong, gusty SW winds become WNW and remain strong into Thursday aftn/evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the lower MD and VA eastern shore. - A few light showers are possible Thursday morning, mainly along and N/NE of the I-64 corridor. As high pressure moves further offshore to the SE, a strong clipper system quickly moves across the Great lakes and into the New England area Wed night into Thursday. This system will remain far enough to the N that most of the impact remain outside of the FA. As the pressure gradient tightens, winds will become breezy with gusts up to 25-30 mph ahead of the cold front. Wed night, temps will be cool with lows in the mid 30s. The cold front will pass through the area late Wed night into Thurs and will bring a chc for rain showers mixing with or ending as snow showers across the Eastern Shore late Thurs morning. There isn't much moisture to this system leaving QPF totals to be trace to 0.02" inches. Model soundings show temps slightly above freezing at the time of showers, which decreases confidence of snow showers making it to the surface. Temps will be the warmest just after sunrise in the mid 40s (upper 40s to lower 50s in SE VA/ NE NC), as the cold front filters in cool air causing temps to fall throughout the day. Fri highs will continue to be cool around 40 degrees. While the cold front won't bring much precip to the area, the winds will be noticeable. Behind the cold front, winds will increase with gusts up to 35-45 mph, highest across the Eastern Shore. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Tuesday... Key Messages: - Chilly temperatures persist through Saturday, before a significant warming trend begins Sunday and especially Monday-Tuesday. - Rain chances increase early next week. To start the weekend, the cold front from Thursday will be situated well offshore, leaving cool high pressure in its wake over the OH Valley and ern/SE CONUS. Aloft, NW flow is expected initially as the associated trough axis also shifts offshore. With slowly diminishing winds and clear skies, Friday night looks to be very chilly, with forecast lows in the mid-upper teens inland and low-mid 20s closer to the coast. Thicknesses and heights gradually rebound by Saturday afternoon and highs should be a few degrees milder than Friday, but still on the cold side (mid 40s), albeit under a mostly sunny sky. Cloud coverage could be higher across the N as a reinforcing shortwave slides through. Similarly not as chilly Saturday night though the vast majority of the area still likely drops below freezing and into the mid-upper 20s. The sfc high builds south of the area and the low-level flow shifts to the SW as we head into Sunday. Thicknesses also increase markedly as ridging develops and expands over the SE CONUS. As a result, there has been a upward trend in high temperatures Sunday and most of the area is expected to top out in the mid-upper 50s. Cannot rule out additional upward adjustments if the eastward progression or strength of the ridge ends up being faster/stronger. Additionally, skies (as of now) are expected to be sunny or mostly sunny, so it should feel quite nice...especially after the recent cold spell. Forecast lows Sunday night are in the mid-upper 30s inland and around 40 F at the coast. A significant pattern change is expected early next week as the deep- layer flow becomes southwesterly and high pressure sets up near Bermuda. This will favor much milder temperatures and at least intermittent chances for precip. The precip coverage will be dependent on the track of various weaker shortwaves downstream of a larger positively-tilted trough over the western states. Either way, think most of the area sees something in the way of rainfall in the early-mid week period next week, but the coverage varies among the guidance. The highest PoPs are currently highest (50%) across N and NW portions of the forecast area Monday, with lower confidence and lower PoPs Tuesday. In terms of temps, highs Monday range from the mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Tuesday's highs could be even higher (potentially nearing 70 in some spots). This is still ~7 days away, however. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 705 PM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions and dry weather will prevail at the TAF sites from this evening into Wed evening. Expect mainly SKC or FEW CI this evening through Wed morning, then increasing CI or SCT AC Wed aftn into Wed aftn, well in advance of a cold front. Very light NW or N winds tonight into early Wed morning, then winds becoming SW and increase for later Wed morning into Wed night. A cold front will move through the area Thu, bringing potential gusts up to 25-35 kt, with the Eastern Shore potentially reaching gusts up to 45 kt. Outlook: Behind the cold front Thu, VFR conditions are expected for the weekend. Rain chances Mon and Tue could result in degraded flight categories. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Strong winds are expected beginning this afternoon through Thursday night in advance of and following a strong cold front. - A long period of sustained winds in excess of 25 knots with gusts in excess of 35 knots are likely for much of the area, Gale Warnings have been issued for all area waters. Surface high pressure has migrated south and southeast and is now centered over AL/GA early this morning with a deepening surface low just north of Lake Superior. A cold front extends to the SSW from the low across the Mississippi Valley. Winds locally have decreased to 5-10 kt and all SCAs for the Ches Bay have been allowed to expire. Waves are 1-2 ft in the bay with seas offshore running 2-4 ft. Calm before the storm this morning as high pressure dominates the local weather. The high will continue to nudge south and east ahead of rapidly deepening low pressure near the Great Lakes this afternoon. Winds become SW 15-25 kt with gust to 30 kt this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens, increasing to 20-30 kt with gusts 35-40 kt this evening and 25-35 kt with gusts 35-45 kt tonight. 00z guidance consensus has winds increasing into gale territory a bit earlier than previous runs so have moved the start time for Gale Warnings to 7pm tonight for the entire Ches Bay as well as the lower James River and coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. Will leave the upper rivers in strong SCAs tonight in SW flow. The cold front blasts through the region Thursday morning into the early afternoon with winds becoming west then northwest in strong cold advection. Have issued Gale Warnings for the upper rivers from 10am-7pm Thursday with the W/NW direction much more favorable for sustained gale conditions in these areas. Winds maintain 25-35 kt with gusts 35-45 through early evening Thursday before slowly decreasing after sunset. However, winds will remain above SCA thresholds well into Friday for most of the local waters. High pressure builds into the SE CONUS this weekend, resulting in much improved boating conditions. Seas build to 6 to 10 feet across the northern waters and 4 to 7 feet across the southern waters late Wednesday through Thursday. Waves in the bay build to 4 to 6 feet, with the peak likely Wednesday night. Waves/seas will decrease on Friday but seas offshore likely remain near/above 5 ft into early Friday evening. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 300 PM EST Tuesday... With the strong SW winds expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning, there is increasing potential for blow out tides during the low tide cycle early Thursday. Guidance has many lower bay sites and some ocean sites dropping to at least -1.0 ft MLLW. These low water levels could impact navigation in some areas Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for VAZ099-100. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-634-638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...KMC/LKB SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...KMC/TMG MARINE...AJB/HET/RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RHR