FXUS61 KBTV 040534 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1234 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread snow is expected tomorrow afternoon through early Friday, with a few to several inches of accumulation is expected. Periods of windy conditions will result in low visibilities with blowing and drifting snow. Unseasonably cold weather will follow for the first half of the weekend before moderating early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1226 AM EST Wednesday...The pesky lake effect band off the south end of Lake Champlain has finally dissipated early this morning. However, isolated showers continue, mainly across the Northeast Kingdom and into the southern Greens. Skies have cleared over much of northern NY, while VT remains socked in clouds. Do expect the clouds to decrease over VT as we head into early Wednesday morning, while clouds increase across northern NY in response to some lake enhanced showers. Overall the forecast has this covered, just needed to make some adjustments to PoPs and sky cover to match the above trends. Previous discussion...Aside from a few narrow clusters of light snow showers, it is generally a dry and cloudy evening across the region. This is the calm before the storm. The upcoming storm won't seem like a storm if you're looking for heavy precipitation amounts, but it will involve some impressive pressure gradients resulting in quite a bit of wind. Through Wednesday night, the strongest wind will be focused up the Champlain Valley due to a southerly direction, although winds will become gusty first across much of northern New York and then late in the day across the rest of Vermont. The combination of wind and light snowfall necessitates winter weather headlines, which begin 1 PM Wednesday. Hazardous travel possibly will probably develop in time for the afternoon/evening commute where we have issued Winter Weather Advisories. Snowfall amounts in much of the region will be 2 to 6 inches through Thursday morning. Heaviest amounts through this period are favored across southern Rutland and Windsor counties closer to where some frontogenetic forcing will reside, but much of the northern mountains could see several inches of snow as well. Where no headlines were issued, snowfall may struggle against dry low level air to become more than a dusting or so of snowfall through Wednesday night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 446 PM EST Tuesday...As the clipper system races eastward from southwestern Quebec to northern Maine Thursday morning, we will see a significant lull in winds as broad low pressure reside over the North Country. With a cold pool aloft following the low pressure system, by Thursday afternoon we should see some steep low lapse rates develop, resulting in some instability that helps generate ingredients favorable for snow squalls. So while precipitation will no longer be widespread, hazardous travel due to brief heavy snowfall rates and associated low visibilities will continue through the day on Thursday. Greater coverage of snow showers will develop late in the day as winds turn westerly and increase greatly in magnitude. At this time, there does not appear to be a sharp boundary to focus precipitation along, but we'll have to watch for enhanced impacts with any linear shower development that could impact the evening commute. Additional snowfall on Thursday and Thursday night will largely be 1 to 4 inches, but 4 to 8 inches could be common in the western slopes of the Adirondacks and near the Green Mountains with prolific upslope for several hours. Very favorable conditions for heavy mountain snow associated with moist northwesterly unblocked flow seems likely to develop overnight Thursday, and widespread blowing snow will be likely with strong cold air advection occurring. Wind chills will tumble into the teens and single digits with some gusts between 30 and 40 MPH for most locations. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 447 PM EST Tuesday...Lingering upslope showers will continue into Friday morning in the wake of the exiting clipper system, gradually coming to an end through the morning. Brisk northwesterly flow will continue through the end of the week into the weekend, especially on Friday with a tightening pressure gradient as the surface low departs and ridging begins shifts eastward. Friday and Saturday will be quite blustery, with high temperatures in the teens and 20s, and wind chills in the single digits and teens during the day with the brisk winds. Overnight lows will also be quite cold, in the single digits and teens Friday night. Additional snowfall will be possible this weekend, as a shortwave moves through the region, although there is still some uncertainty with the exact progression and location of this feature, with the latest 12Z guidance showing the disturbance passing to our north, so continued to utilized the blended guidance and NBM forecast. Heading into next week, temperatures will trend milder with highs likely in the upper 30s and even low 40s for the start of the work week. Another system and associated frontal boundaries look to bring more widespread precipitation to the region. With such mild temperatures, rainfall looks likely especially in the broader valleys, with a rain/snow mix across the higher terrain, although at this time range things are still quite uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Primarily VFR conditions prevailing across all terminals at this hour, with the exception of localized IFR at KRUT/KSLK due to low clouds and lingering snow showers. These showers will die down in the next couple hours, and expect these two terminals to return to VFR by 10z. VFR will continue until early afternoon, then conditions will worsen as snow spreads from west to east, generally from 18z onward. Ceilings will gradually lower to 2500 ft, and visibilities 2-3sm in steady snow. All terminals affected by 02z Thu. Light winds will trend toward S/SW by 12z Wed, then becoming increasingly breezy through the day, with gusts of 20-30 kt at most terminals. These winds will persist through the end of the TAF period, along with LLWS. Outlook... Thursday: MVFR and IFR. Likely SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN, Areas BS. Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>021. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for NYZ029>031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Hastings/Neiles