FXUS61 KOKX 070241 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 941 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure gradually departs to the northeast tonight. A weakening low pressure system and cold front over the mid-West approaches and moves through Friday night into Saturday morning, followed by high pressure through midweek. Another frontal system approaches by week's end. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... The forecast is mainly on track. Main adjustment withs this update was to increase the cloud cover for the next few hours based on latest satellite imagery. Mostly cloudy this evening, but clearing expected late tonight. Colder air moves in tonight on a northwesterly flow, with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The pressure gradient tightens tonight as low pressure gradually exits to the northeast. The area stays well mixed, with winds increasing aloft. NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings show mixing up to at least 850mb for an extended period of time, with 50+ kt at this level. HREF mean also shows deep mixing, with multiple hours tonight showing 40+ kt max momentum transfer and 50+ kt on Friday, with widespread 40 kt gusts expected. Isolated gusts 45 to 50 kt can not be ruled out. A Wind Advisory continues for the entire forecast area from 6 PM this evening through Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will be slightly above normal for this time of year, in the middle 40s to near 50. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... Winds diminish somewhat Friday night. A weakening low pressure system over the mid-West approaches Friday night. With zonal flow aloft, expect much of any precipitation to associated with this low, which weakens into a surface trough by the time it moves through the forecast area, to pass to the south. However, there is a slight chance for snow showers across northeast NJ, NYC, and Long Island associated with this feature. No accumulation is expected. Lows will be in the middle 20s to middle 30s across the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... **Key Points** * Mainly dry weather through the the middle of next week. Windy conditions will continue on Saturday into Sunday. * A gradual warmup from near normal temperatures this weekend to above normal temperatures through midweek. The global models and their respective ensembles are in decent agreement with the pattern into next week. Thus, the NBM was followed closely for this update with adjustments to the winds/gusts on Saturday into Sunday. The region lies on the southern edge of longwave trough centered over eastern Canada to start the period. A series of weak shortwaves moves through the flow and over the local area into early next week with little fanfare. The flow then deamplifies, becoming more zonal through next Thursday. At the surface, northwest flow continues Saturday and Sunday. The pressure gradient remains rather tight into Saturday evening, with model soundings indicating a well-mixed boundary layer. Thus, winds look to remain gusty Saturday into early Sunday, though shy of advisory criteria. Have bumped up winds in collaboration with neighboring offices from the NBM with this update, effectively near the 75th percentile. High pressure then builds in from the southwest on Sunday into Wednesday, enhancing southerly flow and warm air advection. 850mb temperatures max out at about 5-7C on Wednesday and again on Thursday, with 50s and low to mid 60s likely at the surface; warmest temperatures away from the coasts. The warmest day next week looks to be Wednesday, under westerly flow, with some uncertainty in the timing of a frontal passage on Thursday and a more southerly wind component. NBM IQRs (75th-25th percentiles) for mid next week are in the 10-15 degree range, indicating the sensitivity of the afternoon highs to the surface flow. Nonetheless, above normal temperatures look likely Monday - Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure slowly builds back into the area through Friday. VFR. WNW gusts around 40kt for the overnight hours, which probably diminish closer to 35kt starting near 10z or so. Occasional gusts over 40kt will still be possible during Friday however, especially late morning into early afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts could prevail a few kt lower than forecast through Friday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday NIGHT: VFR. W winds gust around 20kt. Saturday: VFR with W winds G15-20kt possible. Sunday - Monday: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, SW-S winds. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale conditions for all waters this evening through Friday with 40 to 45 kt W/NW gusts. There will be a lull in gusts Friday night, with 5+ foot seas continuing on the ocean. Gusty northwest winds return on Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but look to be shy of gale conditions attm. Have left mention out of the HWO with low confidence, even over ocean zones. Waves may approach SCA conditions Saturday night into early Sunday for the eastern ocean zones and taper by Sunday evening. Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are expected across all waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Although the area saw 1-2 inches of rain on Wednesday, windy and dry conditions Friday and Saturday will allow for an increased risk in fire spread. Both days will see min RH values around 30 percent. Gusts on Friday are expected to reach 45 to 50 mph, with gusts on Saturday around 30 to 35 mph. However, in coordination with fire partners, no products are expected at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for CTZ005>012. NY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for NYZ067>075-078>081- 176>179. NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355. && $$ AVIATION...JC