FXUS61 KOKX 112112 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 412 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front swings east of the area tonight. High pressure will gradually build Thursday and settle over the region Friday into Saturday. High pressure slips offshore early Sunday with a weak area of low pressure potentially passing through early next week before another frontal system potentially impacts the area Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... *A Flood Watch remains in effect for southern CT through 1 am tonight. *A High Wind Warning remains in effect for eastern Long Island and far SE CT until 11 pm, and until 10 pm for the remainder of Long Island and No. New London, Middlesex, and Southern New Haven. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the NYC and NE NJ metro, Southern Westchester, and southwestern CT through 10 pm. *Peak southerly winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 60 mph for LI and southeastern CT. Peak southerly winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph in the Wind Advisory area. Trees and power lines could blow down with potential power outages. Positive vorticity advection ceases towards 0-3Z from west to east with strong negative vorticity advection along with strong cold air advection immediately in the wake of the cold front for late this evening and into the overnight. This will shut off precipitation quickly, along with the strongest wind gusts. The strongest / peak gusts likely get off the east end of LI and far eastern portions of New London County, CT around 3z or so. There will still be gusty conditions, especially from 3 to 7z in strong cold air advection. However, the strongest gusts will be over with. For the overnight gusts on a W wind should be more on the order of 25 to 35 mph. Gusts may weaken further during the per-dawn hours as the magnitude of cold air advection lessens. Much colder air pours in from the west during the overnight into the morning. Wake up wind chills are likely to get into the lower and middle 20s across a good portion of the area. Actual air temperatures are expected to settle close to freezing along the coast, and a couple of degrees below further inland. There may be a few slippery spots approaching daybreak, but with the wind expecting much of the moisture along the ground to evaporate. There will be still be some standing water / ponding in a few spots which could freeze, especially further inland but all in all not expecting widespread impacts from the cold air surge into the morning commute. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... The last spokes of energy from the upper level trough axis pivots through and moves N of the area Thursday. This results in some leftover CAA, especially further north across the area. Look for a windy day with a few gusts potentially getting to about 35 mph, especially across northern portions of the area on Thursday. Forecast soundings look dry with moisture trapped some at around 5 kft, thus there may be some stratcu during the late morning and afternoon. The winds start to subside later Thursday night with light winds during the day Friday as high pressure quickly settles over the area. For wake up wind chills Friday morning even though the winds decrease some, expect widespread teens to around 20. With synoptic scale subsidence in place expect mainly clear skies for Thursday night through Friday as dry conditions prevail for the late week period. With the return of a cP airmass temperatures will average near 5 degrees below average Thursday, 5 to 8 degrees below Thursday night (but feeling colder with the wind), and closer to 10 degrees below Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term period will start off with a cold night Friday night. A 1046-1049 mb surface high builds in and will be centered just to the north by Saturday morning. MOS guidance may be just a bit aggressive with lows at this point given there is time for the pressure gradient trend to change. For now, blended MOS in with the NBM. This gives lows Friday night in the low teens across the interior and LI Pine Barrens and 20s elsewhere. The high remains in control on Saturday and with the cold airmass and a N/NE flow, highs will likely only reach the 30s. A return flow sets up Saturday night as the high shifts offshore. Much of Sunday looks to be dry, but cloudy skies are expected as moisture increases in the low levels from the return flow and as mid and upper level clouds approach from the west. Model spread increases as we head into Sunday night and through the middle of next week. It looks like a pair of systems could bring unsettled weather to the area. Given the uncertainty, stayed relatively close to NBM PoPs. Any precipitation would likely fall as plain rain, with the exception of portions of the interior where a brief wintry mix at the start Sunday evening is possible. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH IMPACT EVENT INTO EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SFC WINDS AND LLWS... A strong cold front will move through this evening. High pressure gradually moves in from the south late tomorrow. IFR/LIFR will continue to be possible through 00Z until the cold front pushes through. Then, showers will scatter and conditions will return to MVFR until later tonight when conditions return to VFR as clouds scatter. VFR remains tomorrow. S winds continue gusting 25-40 kts. We'll continue to see 25-35 kt gusts following the front tonight, but from a more westerly direction. Winds remain strong tomorrow W 15-20 G20-30 kt. LLWS decreases following the front this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty... AMD likely for changing conditions. OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday: VFR. W winds 15-20G30kt. Friday and Saturday: VFR. Sunday: MVFR or lower cond possible with light rain and low clouds, especially late. Monday: MVFR possible in showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Low pressure and its associated cold front impacting the waters during the evening hours will sweep east of the waters during the overnight and pre-dawn hours. Storm force wind conditions should continue to about midnight or thereabouts for the eastern ocean, otherwise gale conditions continue for the majority of the ocean through the day Thursday. Although, the western ocean may experience more small craft conditions vs gales during Thursday afternoon. The non-ocean nearshore waters will experience gales force conditions through the first half of tonight, followed by small craft conditions through the day Thursday. Small craft conditions may linger into a portion of Thursday night, before sub small conditions return late at night and into Friday morning. Eastern ocean seas may linger around 5 ft into a portion of Friday morning. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the waters Friday night through Sunday. Later Sunday night into Monday small craft seas around 5 ft on the ocean become increasingly likely. && .HYDROLOGY... Mainly minor urban and nuisance flooding through this evening. An isolated instance of moderate flooding remains possible in mainly urban locations and cannot be completely ruled out. There are no hydrologic concerns for late this week through the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels for most locations should once again remain below minor flooding benchmarks even though peak surge occurs for some locations early this evening. The relatively higher probabilities of minor coastal impacts are related to the combination of elevated water and splashover from wave action for places like the eastern Great South Bay as strong southerly flow switches to southwest, which may prevent water from escaping the bay quickly. The combination of 10-15 ft breakers during the evening high tide will cause widespread beach flooding and erosion. Scattered area of dune base erosion, and localized washovers possible for LI beaches where dunes protection is compromised. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005-006-009. Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Thursday for CTZ005>012. High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ007-008- 010-011. High Wind Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for CTZ012. NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ071>075-176- 178. High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ078-080- 177-179. High Wind Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for NYZ079-081. NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ006-104-106- 108. MARINE...Storm Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335- 340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ338. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/JT NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...BR MARINE...JE/JT HYDROLOGY...JE/JT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...