FXUS61 KRLX 040541 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1241 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and cloudy tonight. Rain and mountain snow returns with a cold front Wednesday night, followed by area-wide snow chances Thursday. Warming trend starts Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 800 PM Tuesday... Did make a few small adjustments to overnight lows (downward in a few spots) based on current conditions and trends, and also tweaked cloud. Also smoothed the POP transition a bit heading into 00z Thurs, but no major changes were made at this point regarding the incoming storm system. As of 1250 PM Tuesday... High pressure centered over our area will begin to pivot south tonight and should potentially lead to skies clearing overnight tonight, especially across western portions of our area, but clouds could linger across the northeast mountains and just westward as they get held up this afternoon into tonight. Lingering broad area of light snow/flurries present across the southern half of our area as a result of upstream lake effect activity providing moisture amid continued cold air advection, the heaviest activity should continue to push southeast through this afternoon and any remaining snow should transition to primarily flurries by evening, but not before some areas see up to an inch of snow, mainly near Beckley and along the higher elevations. Temperatures overnight tonight should be similar to the previous night but a few degrees warmer, with low's around 20 across the lowlands and low to mid teens in the mountains, some locations may get into the single digits again, especially if cloud cover manages to clear out overnight across the mountains. High temperatures Wednesday will be much warmer from the low to mid 40's across the lowlands and low to mid 30's in the mountains as warm air advection begins tonight amid southwest flow, which will lead to an increase in moisture returning to the area as well ahead of a clipper poised to slow down and deepen across southern Ontario late Wednesday, leading to our next chance at measurable precipitation Wednesday night. Lastly, winds will increase amid southwest warm air advection by late morning Wednesday as the low pressure system quickly approaches from the west, leading to wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph across much of the lowlands with higher gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely in the mountains starting at the end of this period. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 239 PM Tuesday... Key Points: * A clipper system will bring snow accumulations to the area Wednesday night through Thursday. * 3-6" across the mountains, with locally higher amounts possible. * 1-3" possible across the lowlands. * Whiteout conditions and blowing snow possible across the higher elevations of the mountains. * Strong gusty winds will be likely across the higher terrain. * Cold wind chills expected Thursday and Friday mornings. A strong cold front will bring another round of accumulating snow to the area Wednesday night through Thursday. This clipper will be a bit more effective than the previous due to adequate cold air being in place already. This system also is projected to traverse the area much slower, allowing for longer a time frame for accumulations. A winter storm watch has been issued Wednesday evening into Thursday afternoon for portions of northern and northeastern West Virginia for heavy snow and low visibilities due to blowing snow. Further winter weather headlines and expansions are likely in the next hours. Expecting a decent bit of snow across the mountains where anywhere between 2" to 6" inches will be possible, with locally higher amounts across the highest terrain of the mountains. The lowlands will see rain changing to snow early Thursday morning with light accumulations between 1" and 3" inches expected. The heaviest snowfall looks to occur Thursday morning with the morning commute likely being impacted. A strong pressure gradient creates gusty winds across the area late Wednesday into Thursday. The higher elevations of the mountains could see gusts up to 50 mph. Blowing snow leading to whiteout conditions will be possible for areas in Randolph, Upshur, Barbour, Pocahontas and Webster counties (Winter Storm Watch areas). Visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times will be possible, particularly Thursday morning. Strong gusts paired with cold temperatures in the teens and 20s across the mountains will create very cold wind chills in the negative single digits and teens Thursday and Thursday night. Cold weather headlines may be issued in the future. Snowfall looks to taper off and become skewed to the mountains in the form of upslope Thursday afternoon and evening. Light accumulations are possible across the western slopes of the northeastern mountains Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1157 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * Upslope mountain snow will be ending Friday. * Afterwards, becoming dry into Saturday. * Cold on Friday and Friday night. * Warming trend will start this weekend. * Chances for rain Sunday and higher chances on Monday into Tuesday with cold front. On Friday, the area will be under strong NW flow behind a strong cold front with high pressure squeezing in from our SW. Left chances for early morning upslope snow showers across the higher elevations of the northeastern WV mountains, with a few light accumulations less than an inch possible. Winds will be continuing to lessen as a pressure gradient aloft moves off to the east, but the NW flow gradient will be present enough to keep gusts up to 20 MPH or 30 MPH until afternoon across the the higher terrain. Cold weather headlines may be possible Friday morning across the usual NW Pocahontas/SE Randolph higher elevations zones with temperatures projected to be in the upper single digits and lower 10s. This paired with active wind could make for wind chills in the negative teens for some locations. Outside of the higher elevations, Friday will showcase a very cold and brisk start, with skies clearing and mostly dry conditions thanks to the entrance of high pressure. Winds will slack off through the day, but high temperatures will be around freezing across the lowlands with teens and 20s expected in the mountains. Dry weather lasts from Friday night into Saturday, but more chances for snow and some rain may arrive by Saturday afternoon through Sunday with an upper-level disturbance ahead of a warm front. Not highly confident that this system will be impactful or conducive to accumulating snow. Warm up also looks to occur on Saturday and Sunday with the lowlands finally seeing some 40s and 50s on the board for temperatures thanks to a crossing warm front. The system arrives Monday in the form of a cold front. Models are showing likely to definite PoPs Monday through Tuesday, but not willing to keep high precipitation chances this far out. Did lower percentages some, but kept the broadbrush coverage as this system looks wet. Warming trend will also be continuing Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lowlands looking to be in the 50s, with 40s in the mountains. Some of the typical warm spots across the lowlands could see temperatures around 60 degrees on Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1240 AM Wednesday... Outside a pocket of MVFR stratus hugging the northeast West Virginia mountains, flight conditions remain quiet early this morning. This will remain the case through the first half of the day before the next disturbance sinks down from the Great Lakes region. This will promote the combination of lowered ceilings and rain/snow showers for the concluding hours of the TAF period. Warm temperatures at the onset of precipitation will advertise rain, but will gradually change over to snow overnight tonight as colder air filters into the region. This will then promote low end VFR down to MVFR ceilings to round out the period. A strong jet associated with this approaching disturbance will introduce an uptick in low to mid level winds starting Wednesday afternoon into tonight. Breezy to strong surface gusts were mentioned shortly after 16Z today and will then persist through the end of the period. Uncertainty lies in surface conditions late tonight, where any moments of decoupling and growing calm at the surface will then enforce LLWS at the top of the flight column. On the other hand, gusts on the upwards of 25 to 30kts out of the southwest could prevail overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of sub-VFR ceilings may vary late this evening with the arrival of the clipper system. LLWS onset time and strength tomorrow could vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 12/04/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in snow showers starting Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for WVZ039-040-522-523-525-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ/LTC NEAR TERM...28/FK SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...MEK