FXUS62 KFFC 040529 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1229 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 307 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024 Key Messages: - Even colder low temperatures tonight with widespread frost. - Milder high temperatures for Wednesday. - Increasing clouds Wednesday afternoon with light rain possible by evening. An upper trough is presently shifting offshore the U.S. East Coast, with NW flow behind it ushering in cold air to the region. At the surface, high pressure is settling over the SE U.S. Early morning clouds across the extreme N rapidly dissipated, giving way to sunny skies across the region. Early afternoon temperatures range from the mid 30s in portions of the extreme N to the upper 40s in the extreme SE. The center of the surface high will be located over the County Warning Area (CWA) tonight, leading to calm winds and clear skies and nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. As a result, low temperatures tonight will be several degrees colder than last night's, with lows ranging from the teens in the NE mountains to the upper 20s in the extreme SE. A broad upper trough will remain over the E U.S. on Wednesday, with upper flow becoming more westerly. High temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today's, ranging from the mid 40s in the NE mountains to the mid 50s across the S. High clouds will begin to thicken during Wednesday afternoon as another cold front approaches from the NW. The parent upper level shortwave will pass well to the N over the Great Lakes. However, low-level moisture will begin to increase, leading to some light rain ahead of the front, particularly over the W half of the area. There is a very low chance that a few snowflakes may mix with the rain Wednesday evening as surface temperatures cool with the loss of daytime heating. However, warm air advection ahead of the front will lead to gradually warming temperatures later Wednesday night prior to frontal passage. As the chance of this occurrence is very low, the window of opportunity is short, and no accumulation or impacts are expected, will not include in the forecast at this time. Later shifts can further hone this forecast. SEC && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 307 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024 Key Messages: - Chance of showers continuing in west Georgia Thursday morning. Some flurries will be possible in the NE GA mountains. - Another shot of cold air Thursday night with lows in the 20s (and teens in the mountains). - Slow warm up through weekend to more seasonable temps. Next chance of rain Sunday night into Monday. Forecast: What feels like the hundredth cold front will be pushing through the CWA on Thursday morning as a potent upper level low moves across the NE CONUS with attendant surface low. Some showers will be possible along the front during the morning hours in mainly west central Georgia. Some light flurries may occur as moisture wraps around the low and pushes up against the mountains of NE GA, but not expecting any meaningful accumulations with this right now beyond a light dusting on elevated surfaces. Cold air will once again filter into the CWA, bringing cold overnight low in the teens in the mountains and 20s elsewhere Thursday Night. Highs on Friday will be chilly, in the 40s to low 50s from north to central GA. Here is where either the good or bad news starts, depending on how you feel about the cold air and winter temps. A cut off low over the desert southwest and trough moving into the Pacific coast will help kick start a bit of a pattern chance towards the beginning of next week. Surface winds Saturday and Sunday will switch back to the south, allowing some warmer air to slowly creep back into the area. And by warmer, we are really talking more seasonable, as this will bring high temps back into the 50s and 60s. Our next weather system should occur early next week, though GEFS and EPS have some timing differences related to when the cut off low ejects and how it merges with a larger trough diving into the upper Great Plains. At least for now, ensembles are consistent in showing some decent precip amounts, though nothing concerning from a flooding perspective. Basically, a decent soaking rain of half an inch to an inch. Stay tuned for more details. Lusk && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 VFR through late Wednesday evening. Mid level clouds will begin to increase by sunset with MVFR cigs between 06-12Z THU. Some patchy light rain/sprinkles are possible at this time also. VSBY restrictions not expected at this time. Winds will remain on the west side and speeds should begin to pick p after 00Z WED. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 39 53 22 47 / 20 10 0 0 Atlanta 42 51 25 46 / 30 10 0 0 Blairsville 32 42 15 43 / 20 10 0 0 Cartersville 40 49 20 45 / 30 10 0 0 Columbus 41 58 27 51 / 70 40 0 0 Gainesville 40 50 24 47 / 20 10 0 0 Macon 40 59 26 50 / 30 30 0 0 Rome 38 47 21 44 / 30 10 0 0 Peachtree City 39 53 21 47 / 30 10 0 0 Vidalia 40 61 30 50 / 20 20 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...NListemaa