FXUS62 KJAX 040822 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 322 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Freeze/frost conditions this morning will lift by midmorning with mild winds, mostly clear skies, and dry weather persisting through today and the early evening hours. Later tonight warmer more humid air from out of the gulf will cross the the forecast area from out of the west, ahead of a frontal boundary pressing down from out of the north, resulting in increased cloud cover and slight chance for light showers occurring over inland southeast Georgia and in the Suwannee Valley region during the overnight hours. Potential for some overnight and early Thursday morning frost formations to occur over inland areas is possible. High temperatures for today will rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s for southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 60s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 30s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 40s for areas long the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 A warmer day as westerly flow sets up ahead of an approaching cold front. Amid increasing moisture aloft and supporting jet dynamics, a thickening cloud cover will stream overhead with a few embedded showers and sprinkles developing along a weak prefrontal trough through the day Thursday. A dry sub-cloud layer will keep rain amounts limited but some locations could see up to a tenth of an inch. The front will pass Thursday night and cold, dry airmass will push into the region setting up another cold and frosty morning across SE GA on Friday. Continued cold advection will lead another cold day and night. Freeze headlines, with a mention of "hard" freeze conditions, is likely to be needed Friday night and Saturday morning as temps plummet into the mid/upper 20s once again across portions of NE FL and SE GA. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 A pattern shift will occur during the latter part of the weekend and into early next as the surface high moves off the Mid Atlantic coast, turning low level flow southeasterly. This will lift a coastal trough inland as a pseudo warm front and lead to a dramatic rebound in temperatures by early next week as the northern stream jet deamplifies and a subtropical upper ridge builds in from the Gulf. Over this period, confidence is lower than normal next week given a fairly dynamic pattern. Given the moist, warm pattern, mornings are likely to be at least locally foggy inland each day. The potential for rain is a bit more iffy as the aforementioned upper ridge may act as a disturbance deflector through the early part of next week, keeping the best rain chances to the west and northwest. Clustered ensemble guidance is fairly spread on the potential scenarios for rain next week, but the general consensus is that the ridge would break down or flatten out enough to allow disturbances track overhead, increasing potential for a needed rainfall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 VFR conds expected through the period. Winds becoming variable at 5 knots or less through the TAF period for all TAF sites save SGJ which will remain northerly at around 8 knots tonight and then becoming light and variable on Wednesday. Some low level stratocumulus clouds are possible at SGJ through tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Gusty north-northwesterly winds will continue this evening before shifting to northerly while gradually diminishing overnight. Winds and seas will diminish Wednesday as high pressure settles directly over our local waters. Westerly winds will then strengthen late on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of another strong cold front that will pass across our area on Thursday evening. Northerly winds will strengthen in the wake of this dry frontal passage late on Thursday night and Friday. Winds and seas will then gradually diminish this weekend as another high pressure center builds directly over our local waters. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for NE FL beaches today and Thursday Low Risk for SE GA beaches today and Thursday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Cold, dry high pressure will settle over the area, leading to light winds (surface and transport) and low dispersion. Humidity will crater to critical or near-critical inland this afternoon. After a brief warm up through Thursday, another cold front will plunge south Thursday night leading another period of low humidity. Winds are not anticipated to be cortisol, however, the combination of receptive fuels and low humidity may warrant elevated fire weather headlines Friday and Saturday. A pattern shift will commence Sunday a lead to warming and moistening conditions next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 57 37 63 31 / 0 10 20 0 SSI 57 43 67 39 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 60 40 71 39 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 61 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 63 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 65 39 72 46 / 0 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ033-038-124- 125-132-137-140-225-325. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$