FXUS62 KKEY 040843 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 343 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 One last breezy hurrah across the Florida Keys this morning. Wind speeds are a tad bit lower than 24 hours ago with generally near 20 knots being registered across the Florida Bay and Reef Tract. Temperatures are a few degrees cooler this morning as expected. Dew points are impressively in mid to upper 40s, the combination of which is keeping relative humidity values between 55 and 65 percent! Otherwise, KBYX is void of any precipitation echoes and satellite shows no clouds over the island chain. .FORECAST... Surface high pressure currently residing over the Southeast U.S. will gradually shift further southeast and in response to a strong surface low barreling through the upper Great Lakes region. This will also flatten the high and it will become elongated across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, across the Florida Peninsula and north of the Bahamas. In response, the gradient and winds will relax and end the breezy streak we've had. The trailing cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low will slide southward but now looks to stall across central Florida later this week. Therefore, the moisture located along this boundary will initially remain bottled up to our north and rain chances will continue to remain near nil through the end of the week. As the next high pressure dips out of Canada, it will shove this remnant boundary southward across the Keys by the weekend. There remains a lot of uncertainty how much of this moisture will remain by the time it gets here. To further complicate matters, the next high will be a quick mover, sliding into the Atlantic rather than stalling. This will clock winds around to the east and southeast, which may draw up moisture from the NW Caribbean. As of now, the GFS remains the more aggressive solution with the ECMWF being more reserved. Have opted to make no changes to the going forecast as it is still too far out to try and nail rain chances. Otherwise, a gradual warming trend is expected with increasing dew points. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Small Craft Advisories will hang on through the morning as an ongoing nocturnal surge persists with fresh to occasionally strong northerly breezes. Winds will turn more northeast to east and slacken to gentle to moderate speeds as high pressure settles into the southeast United States, and eventually southward over the Florida Peninsula. Breezes may freshen beginning Friday night, especially across the Straits of Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Dry, VFR conditions continue to prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 12Z TAF period. Northerly breezes will gradually shift northeasterly, reducing crosswind concerns for both terminals. Near surface winds will gradually slacken, dropping from near 15 knots to near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2018, in Marathon, the daily record high temperature of 88F was recorded. This observation tied for the warmest temperature observation recorded in December. Temperature data for Marathon dates back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 72 66 76 67 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 71 64 76 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest