FXUS62 KMFL 040601 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 101 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1258 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Mesoanalysis this morning indicates that the potent positively tilted shortwave has propagated into the western Atlantic waters while the expansive trailing ridge of surface high pressure remains situated across the southeastern United States at the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains. From a climatological standpoint, this setup is a classic harbinger of a hyperborean (cold) morning across the region. This will allow for one last morning of continued anticyclonic circulation of surface ridging to support northerly peninsular flow across the region and continued cold air advection (CAA). The coldest temps and feels-like temps will once again be observed to the west of Lake Okeechobee this morning with a northwest to southeast temperature and dew point gradient remaining in place. Actual minimum temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s across interior Hendry and Glades counties, low to mid 40s across coastal Collier, and lows in the low 50s along the east coast metro areas. Although the pressure gradient has relaxed compared to previous days, apparent (feels-like) temperatures will certainly be felt across the area this morning as wind chills will range from the mid to upper 30s across the interior of Hendry, Glades, and Collier counties. Across coastal Collier and portions of inland Palm Beach, feels-like temps in the mid to upper 40s can be expected with feels-like temperatures near 50 expected elsewhere across the east coast metro. With the previous 500mb shortwave/lobe of troughing advecting eastward into the western Atlantic waters by late Wednesday, the subtropical jet-stream will take a more zonal (west to east) orientation across the region. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate the next short-wave/lobe remaining a little further north, keeping the best dynamics closer to its trajectory over the Great Lakes, northeastern United States, and mid-Atlantic. Synoptic changes aloft dictate what occurs at the surface and the anomalous heights (strong surface high pressure) currently over the southeastern United States will advect offshore on Thursday into the western Atlantic as well. This subtle but key move will switch our prevailing surface flow from a northerly direction to a northeasterly direction. This will begin the gradual moderating trend on Thursday with high temperatures across the region a few degrees warmer than Wednesday and a continued moderation of temperatures during the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1258 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 After a prolonged period of east coast troughing, mid-level ridging will begin to build across the region during the end of the work week as surface winds remain out of a northeasterly direction. Expect a gradual climb in both low and high temperatures as the work week leads into the weekend as well as a gradual moistening of dew points across the region. Model solutions have backed off on the previous solution of having this next frontal boundary arrive in South Florida with any noteworthy temperature implications. Instead, any frontal boundary passage will be meager in nature with winds quickly swinging out of a northeasterly direction. The lack of moisture and synoptic support aloft will keep rain chances to a minimum across the region acting to extend the long period of dry weather South Florida has experienced in the recent past. High temps will range from the mid to upper 70s through the weekend, before increasing to the low to mid 80s early next week. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s through the weekend, increasing to the low 60s inland and near 70 along the coast, early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Mainly clear skies expected with NNW winds 5-10 kts becoming NE after 17Z. APF expected to have NE winds through the entire period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1258 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 As high pressure gradually shifts into the western Atlantic today, winds across all local waters will gradually diminish and seas across the Atlantic waters will subside. Another frontal boundary may approach the local waters towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, which may cause winds and seas to increase during this time frame. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1258 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches today. An elevated risk will remain along the Palm Beaches late this week due to a lingering NE swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 72 61 78 62 / 0 10 0 0 West Kendall 74 57 79 57 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 74 58 79 60 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 74 59 78 60 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 72 60 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 72 60 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 75 60 80 60 / 0 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 57 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 73 58 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 72 52 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ650-670. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...CMF