FXUS62 KMHX 040804 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 304 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold, dry high pressure will remain in control through today, with near record lows possible this morning. A dry strong front will move through Thursday bringing strong winds, particularly for coastal communities. Arctic high pressure builds back over the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: -Cold start to the day with early morning temps in the teens to low 20s across much of mainland ENC High pressure builds over the Carolinas keeping skies clear and winds light and variable to calm. Great radiational cooling conditions right now throughout mainland ENC with the temps in the low to mid 20s throughout much of mainland ENC. Beaches have a light wind preventing decoupling, so along beaches temps are currently in the 30s. Expect temps to continue gradually dropping through the night, reaching the teens by daybreak along the coastal plain. Fortunately with light to calm winds in the way of a truly impactful wind chill, there is no need for a cold weather advisory. It will still be a very chilly (and potentially record breaking) early morning for mainland ENC regardless so ensure you are taking proper cold weather precautions. High pressure gradually pushes offshore through the day Wednesday as our next impactful cold front begins to approach from the west. With high pressure overhead skies will remain generally clear through the day, with some scattered to broken high cirrus possible in the afternoon and evening. Light and variable winds in the morning will become SW'rly as high pressure pushes offshore. This will allow for some weak WAA to set up across the area on Wed allowing for slightly warmer temps. Current forecast has high temps across ENC reaching the upper 40s to low 50s which will feel much warmer as compared to Tuesday's highs. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: -Wind Advisory in effect for Hatteras Island, Ocracoke, and East Carteret beaches with strong SW flow Wednesday night into Thursday -Minor coastal flooding concerns, see COASTAL FLOODING section for more information Winds pick up tonight ahead of a cold front as high pressure shifts further south and east, while a strong low treks across the Great Lakes region and New England. The tightened pressure gradient will result in substantial gusts tonight, as high as 40-50 mph for beaches, and 20-30 mph inland. If a marine inversion infiltrates into the OBX overnight, gusts may only reach the lower end of this range. However with the duration of strong sustained winds and potential for the higher end gusts, A wind advisory is in effect for Hatteras Island, Ocracoke, and Eastern Carteret County. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. See COASTAL FLOODING section for information on coastal flooding hazards. Dry conditions through the night and low temps in the mid 30s inland, mid to upper 40s for beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Update: As of 3 PM Tue: Inc winds a bit for Wed night into Thu. Low level wind field a bit stronger on latest 03/12Z guidance, with 850mb winds of up to 60 kt, and 975mb to 45 kt. Think we should still stay below wind adv for OBX due to some marine inversion present, but will see gusty winds nonetheless to 45 mph for coastal locales esp Thu morning. Adjusted lows down a bit for both Fri night and Sat night where models struggle on the tail end of cold waves and strong inversions. Lows in the mid/upr teens Fri night could approach or exceed records (see record section) and in the mid 20s Sat night as moderated high will still be overhead with very dry airmass in place. As of 3 AM Tue...Long term outlook for eastern NC continues to favor below average temperatures and primarily dry conditions. A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday. Strong high pressure and another round of cold temperatures will build in late week into the weekend. Temps will warm early next week, with better chances for precip. A stronger shortwave is forecast to dive out of central Canada, resulting in cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes and New England which will drag another strong cold front across the eastern CONUS...and through eastern NC Thursday. After a cold start Wed, temps will warm into the upper 40s to low 50s. Ahead of the boundary, breezy conditions are likely as 35-45 kt 850 mb winds are mixed towards the surface Wed night into Thu. SW-WSW winds may gust 40-45 mph along the Outer Banks. This could result in minor soundside water level rises for the Outer Banks. Much more mild temps are expected with highs climbing to 55-60 degrees Thu, though this respite will not last long. Strong high pressure will build back over the area Friday into the weekend, resulting in dry weather and below normal temps. Highs in the 40s Fri and Sat, warming into the 50s Sun and around 60 on Mon. Sat morning looks to be the coldest with temps likely falling into the teens inland and low 30s for the Outer Banks. Another cold front is forecast to approach the area early next week, though still some uncertainty and timing differences in the guidance. Will cap pops at low chance for now. Temps expected to warm to near or slightly above normal Mon and Tue. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday evening/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: -Quiet start to the period, but gusty winds Wednesday night lead to low level wind shear concerns VFR flight cats through period with SKC. Light to calm winds this morning but much too dry for any fog. Winds become SWerly 5-10kt Wed afternoon, increasing to 10-15G20kt inland as pressure gradient tightens. Strong low level flow brings low level wind shear concerns, particularly for coastal plain terminals. Beaches will be even windier, getting as high as 15-25G30-35kts while remaining from the SW by 6Z Thursday. LONG TERM /Wednesday afternoon through Sunday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Prolonged period of VFR conditions expected through the period, as cold and dry high pressure remains in control. Airmass will likely be too dry to support fog, although some reduced visibilities due to steam fog are possible for terminals near water. Another strong cold front crosses the terminals Thursday with the potential for wind gusts 20-25 kt. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/... As of 245 AM Wednesday... Key Messages: -Small Craft Advisory for waters off Hatteras Island has dropped with seas and winds falling below 6ft/25kt -Gale Warnings continue for all waters but inland rivers for the Wednesday night into Thursday system. -Small craft advisories have been issued for inland rivers, and Gale warnings continue for the Wednesday night into Thursday system Strong winds and dangerous seas expected to develop Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure is starting to shift offshore of SC and as a result winds currently from the NW at 10-15G20kts will back to become SW in the afternoon and strengthen through the PM hours. Cold front approaches from the west, and tightened pressure gradient will result in SW winds 20-35G30-45 kts as the aforementioned front gets closer to ENC early Thursday morning. Seas currently 3-5 ft become 2-4 ft this afternoon before starting to increase in response to the strengthening SW winds. Daybreak Thursday seas will be 6-11 ft for coastal waters, highest offshore from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... Update: Have issued gale warnings in place of the watch, and included Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds. As of 3 AM Tue...Strong winds and dangerous seas expected to develop Wednesday night and Thursday. Gale Watches have been issued for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound Wednesday night into Thursday evening, with the potential for 35-40 kt gusts. SCAs will likely eventually be needed for the remaining waters. NW winds 5-15 kt to start off Wed, with winds grad backing becoming SW, then increasing to 15-20 kt by early evening. SW-WSW winds will peak at 20-30 kt across the inland rivers and northern sounds and 25-35 kt across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound...with seas building to 6-12 ft (highest near the Gulf Stream). Slowly improving conditions Thursday night. Strong high pressure will build over the waters Fri into the weekend. Breezy NNW winds 15-25 kt Fri with seas grad subsiding to 3-6 ft. Better conditions expected across the waters Sat, NW-W winds 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 300 AM Wednesday...A strong dry cold front will move through Thursday. Westerly winds will gust 30 to 40 mph during the day. These wind gusts combined with low relative humidities in the low/mid 30s percentile may lead to elevated fire weather conditions. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Tue...Strong SW-W-NW winds will develop late Wednesday night and into Thursday ahead of a dry cold front. This may result in minor water level rises (1-2 ft agl) for soundside Outer Banks. At this time the greatest threat looks to be for areas from Duck to Buxton (including Roanoke Island) early Thu morning through late afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Record Low temperatures for 12/04 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 22/1966 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 27/1979 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 18/1966 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 23/1989 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 19/1966 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 22/1989 (NCA ASOS) Record Low temperatures for 12/07 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 20/1954 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 30/2010 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 19/1984 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 21/1997 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 21/1983 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 19/2010 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM to noon EST Thursday for AMZ135-150-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ152-154. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RJ SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...CQD/TL AVIATION...CQD/RJ MARINE...CQD/RJ FIRE WEATHER...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX CLIMATE...MHX