FXUS62 KMLB 040600 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 100 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024 - Cold temperatures are forecast through Wednesday, with wind chill values in the 30s and 40s Wednesday morning. - Patchy to areas of frost forecast across portions of the interior Wednesday morning. A Frost Advisory is in effect for Lake and inland Volusia Counties. - Poor to hazardous marine conditions will persist through Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024 A reinforcing, dry cold front has shifted southward through the area, and will maintain northerly winds around 5-10 mph across the region. This weaker northerly flow at the surface combined with clear to mostly clear skies and much drier airmass will lead to another chilly night. Low temperatures are again forecast to be around 15 degrees below normal, falling to the mid 30s to mid 40s. Areas of frost are forecast to develop late tonight through early morning Wednesday across Lake and inland Volusia counties where coldest temperatures are expected into tonight, and a Frost Advisory is in effect for this area. However, still can't rule out some patchy frost development across normally colder, wind- sheltered spots across the interior where temps dip below 40 degrees. While wind speeds will be relatively lighter, they will still be able to produce wind chill values in the 30s through early morning Wednesday. Forecast is on track, with no changes planned. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024 Rest of Today-Wednesday...A weak, dry cold front will continue to push through the local area into this evening, bringing another surge of cold, dry air into east central Florida. One more night of cold temperatures are forecast before a warming trend begins. Until then, lows are forecast in the mid to upper 30s over the interior and lower to mid-40s along the coast. It will feel very chilly once again, as winds produce wind chill values in the 30s for nearly all of the forecast area. Patchy frost will be possible north and west of I-4 and in southern Osceola County. However, areas of frost are once again forecast for Lake and inland Volusia Counties. A Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight into early Wednesday morning. A cold start to the morning will see some warming into the afternoon, as high pressure builds into the Southeast. Temperatures will remain below normal, as northerly winds continue. However, a warming trend will begin, with highs forecast in the mid to upper 60s. Far southern portions of the forecast area could even realize 70. Overnight lows Wednesday night will warm more dramatically and are forecast in the mid to upper 40s for most of the area. Rural locations in northern Lake and Inland Volusia Counties look to see lows in the lower 40s. Thursday-Friday...High pressure breaks down and moves farther into the Atlantic Thursday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system north of the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the Deep South. Models are in good agreement that this front will be relatively weak by the time it makes it to east central Florida sometime later on Thursday and into Thursday night. No precipitation is forecast. The most noticeable changes will likely be westerly winds on Thursday ahead of the front. Then, northerly winds return by Friday. The warming trend will briefly stall into Friday, though the airmass does look to be less cold and dry than the previous one earlier in the week. High temperatures return to nearer-normal on Thursday in the lower to mid-70s. By Friday, areas along and north of I-4 will likely struggle to reach 70 once again, though areas to the south will see the lower to mid-70s. Saturday-Monday...High pressure centered across the southeast US on Saturday will move offshore Sunday. As the high pressure continues to move further offshore on Monday, a shortwave trough will move into the Deep South. Locally, northerly winds around 5-10 mph will persist on Saturday and Sunday before becoming southeast on Monday. Temperatures will warm through the period, as high pressure dominates the local pattern. Seasonable highs this weekend will warm to above normal by early next week. Highs in the lower to mid-70s Saturday and Sunday will become the lower 80s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be on the upward trend, warming from the upper 40s/50s over the weekend to the upper 50s/lower 60s early in the week. Mostly dry conditions prevailing, though an approaching mid-level trough could produce a few showers Tuesday, especially across the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024 Rest of Today-Wednesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions today will linger into Wednesday, as high pressure over the Southeast US drifts towards the Atlantic. Northerly winds around 20kts offshore into this evening will lead to seas of 5-8ft in the Gulf Stream. Seas will improve into Wednesday morning. However, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect and have been extended through mid-Wednesday morning for the offshore waters south of the Cape. Small craft should exercise caution over the nearshore waters. While northeasterly winds will have decreased to below 15kts Wednesday, seas up to 5ft will linger offshore, creating less than favorable conditions for small craft. Nearshore, seas 3-4ft. Precipitation is not forecast. Thursday-Sunday...Winds become westerly Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Meanwhile, seas will continue to subside, becoming 2-3ft. Then, northerly winds return Friday behind the front, though look to remain around 15kts. Seas will respond, building to up to 5ft once again. This weekend, northeast winds become onshore through the period, remaining around 10kts or less. Seas 3-4ft. Dry conditions look to persist. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High pressure over the SE US this morning will settle southward over central FL Thu. Winds will veer out of the N/NE to NE Wed 7-9 knots. This onshore flow will brings SCT to ocnly BKN marine stratocu onshore the coastal terminals with bases 040-050AGL. No SHRA expected as moisture layer is too thin. A light offshore (W/SW) flow will develop Thu ahead of the next cool front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024 Today-Thursday...Very dry air lingers over the area this afternoon, with min RH values of 30-40% leading to very sensitive fire weather conditions today. There will be some improvement into late week, with min RH values increasing. However, they will continue to be as low as 40-45% through Thursday. Northerly winds around 10mph over the interior and 10-15mph along the coast will become 10mph or less Wednesday. Then, winds are forecast to veer westerly Thursday ahead of an approaching front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 65 45 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 68 48 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 69 50 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 70 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 67 46 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 68 46 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 69 49 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 70 50 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044-144. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Kelly