FXUS62 KTBW 040833 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 333 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 In the upper levels, the deep trough that brought the recent cold airmass into Florida is shifting east into the Atlantic today, with another trough forecast to dig into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest from Canada during the rest of the week. At the surface, broad high pressure north of Florida will settle south tonight and Thursday, bringing light flow and an end to the cold air advection and allowing temperatures to finally moderate. Temperatures will still run below normal today and tonight, with lows tonight dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s over the Nature Coast, but should be noticeably less cold than the previous few days. Temperatures Thursday and Thursday night will be mild, running just a couple of degrees below normal. By Thursday night, the next trough will be bringing a weak cold front into the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level support staying so far to the north, the front will not pack the same punch as the recent event, and lows Saturday morning will only drop into the mid 30s to low 40s over the Nature Coast, and mid 40s to low 50s over the rest of west central and southwest Florida. A few showers will be possible ahead of the frontal boundary Thursday night and Friday morning, although the majority of the area is expected to stay rain free. A strong surface ridge will settle in just northeast of Florida behind the front, with temperatures continuing to warm up through the weekend and into early next week. By Monday and Tuesday, highs will be back in the upper 70s and low 80s with a few showers possible as moisture returns. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 High pressure north of the waters this morning will slide south this afternoon and into Thursday, keeping winds near or below 15 knots through the rest of the week. Northeast flow today will become more variable tonight and Thursday. A weak and dry cold front will push through the waters on Friday, with winds turning to northeasterly behind the front and holding through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Atmospheric moisture will start to increase this afternoon, although relative humidity will still drop to below 35 percent in a few spots, mainly along the Nature Coast. However, winds will be too low to trigger Red Flag warnings. Humidity will continue to rise on Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 68 51 73 57 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 73 52 76 57 / 0 0 10 0 GIF 70 49 76 57 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 70 50 74 60 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 68 42 74 51 / 0 0 10 20 SPG 67 56 71 60 / 0 0 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Coastal Pasco- Inland Pasco-Sumter. Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Levy. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming