FXUS63 KDDC 040515 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather will continue this week with no hazards or impacts through the weekend. - Southwest Kansas will remain dry through at least next weekend. - Much colder air, and perhaps some light snow, are expected next Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Quiet and dry weather continues, with no impacts or hazards through this week. SWly return flow was well established at midday, with gusts to near 30 mph. Downslope compression and warm advection at 850 mb will combine to send temperatures well into the 50s this afternoon, with lower 60s southwest of Dodge City. Some scattered cirrus and surface winds trending light westerly will prevent full radiational cooling tonight, with sunrise Wednesday temperatures a few degrees above early December normals, in the upper 20s and lower 30s. A weak boundary will supply a N/NW wind shift Wednesday, and weak high pressure will build over SW KS through the afternoon, but models show little if any cooling. Afternoon temperatures will remain well into the 50s. The next dry cold front will backdoor into SW KS Wednesday night, as another fresh cold 1040 mb surface high builds into the northern plains, trending winds light easterly and sending temperatures well below freezing, well down into the 20s. Thursday morning may be much colder than NBM suggests, especially the northeast zones. SW KS will reside on the western periphery of the cold air mass Thursday, resulting in a sizable temperature gradient even as south winds return. NBM temperature spread from 30s east to 50s adjacent to Colorado looks appropriate. The cold air will be flushed out Friday, allowing afternoon temperatures to bounce back well into the 50s, under benign flow aloft with weak pressure gradients. Saturday stands out as a very pleasant day, especially for December standards, with several more degrees of warming, into the lower 60s, with gentle SWly downslope assisting temperatures. Weak closed cyclone near Sonora, Mexico 6 am Saturday will weaken into an open progressive shortwave trough as it ejects onto the plains Sunday. Moisture will be lacking, only expecting a few extra clouds and another north wind shift through Sunday night. Monday will remain dry, but north winds will provide noticeable cold air advection, reducing temperatures closer to December normals, in the upper 40s and lower 50s. The next chance of any precipitation is next Tuesday. ECMWF and many of the EPS ensemble members continue to try and close off a 544 dm closed midlevel cyclone near the Four Corners around Tuesday morning. These solutions suggest light snow spreading over SW KS Tuesday as the trough axis approaches, but all guidance continues with the notion of a strongly positively tilted longwave trough, which always works strongly against significant rain/snow in SW KS during the cold season. EPS ensemble members currently show a 20-30% probability of QPF > 0.1 inch (snow > inch) favoring the western zones on Tuesday. Deterministic ECMWF suggests a 1-3 inch snowfall across western zones, but GFS amounts are less. NBM pops in the far extended are still dry, but expect these to show up in the next few runs. Positive tilt of the longwave will work against a significant winter storm. That said, high confidence of strong north winds and sharply colder air Tuesday, with perhaps some blowing snow where snow decides to accumulate. Probably wrote way too much for a system a week away, but this is our next chance of any snow or any winter impacts. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1114 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 A surface trough extended from south central Nebraska to just west of Garden City. Surface analysis also shows a weak cold front over Nebraska, and with southward advancement and overngiht cooling ahead of it, the cold front should overtake the trough by 12z. Some sub 1000ft ceilings may form (10-20% chance) along this area of moisture convergence, near and south of KDDC , between about 8 and 13z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Russell