FXUS63 KEAX 040502
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1102 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures return Thursday, highs below freezing, 
  along with breezy northwest winds Wednesday night into 
  Thursday. 

- Warming trend through the weekend. Highs in the 50s Saturday 
  and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

19Z surface analysis shows the surface ridge has continues to slide 
southeast, with surface winds shifting more south and southwest this 
afternoon. In response, under sunny skies, temperatures have 
gradually increased above freezing. This warm up will continue into 
Wednesday ahead of a pre-frontal trough advancing in from the 
northwest. With modest southwest boundary layer flow through midday, 
temperatures will push the upper 30s to near 40 F again. This window 
of above freezing temperatures will be short lived, as the push of 
the stout mid-level trough off the Canadian Prairie toward the Great 
Lakes, will drive a return to focused northwesterly flow Wednesday 
night into Thursday. Breezy northwest winds will develop Wednesday 
night, and the NBM is likely under performing a touch compared to 
some of the comparable ensemble members. Therefore, increased winds 
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with gusts approaching 30 mph 
overnight. Along with breezy northwest winds developing, 
temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper teens Thursday 
morning, with highs only in the mid to upper 20s F Thursday 
afternoon. 

Through Thursday night, the surface ridge will slide southeast while 
a mid-level trough will cutoff over the southwestern U.S. Ahead of 
this synoptic feature, shallow H500 ridging will develop, with a 
return to southerly return flow Friday and increasing into the 
weekend as the stalled H500 trough becomes more of a long-wave 
trough and works eastward across Texas toward the Gulf. In response, 
temperatures will reach the 50s on Saturday and near 60 in some 
locations on Sunday. Additionally, some broad-scale ascent spread 
from the ArkLaTex to the Ozarks, will support some lower chance PoPs 
as far north as Mid-Missouri. NBM probabilities Sunday night into 
Monday morning across Mid-Mo are low, but not zero, about 20 to 30% 
chance for measurable rainfall, greater than 0.01."

Looking into the extended, the long range solutions are in general 
agreement with a longwave H500 trough emerging off the Rockies 
Monday into Tuesday, with some increased precipitation chances 
Tuesday morning. Working top-down, there could be a window for 
light wintry precipitation Tuesday next week. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR will continue for the next 24 hours. Main concern will be
winds, with a steady south wind around 10 kt (ranging from 170 
to 220 degrees) continuing through the overnight hours. Windier 
sites (e.g., MCI/IXD) may feature occasional gusts to 20 kt,
especially overnight. At more sheltered airports, winds may stay
around 5 to 10 kt. Winds aloft will be strong, with
southwesterly wind shear of 40 to 50 kt in the lowest 2000 ft
for more sheltered locations/airports. By Wednesday morning, 
winds will begin to veer to a more westerly direction, and 
eventually northwesterly, by midday. After a lull in wind gusts 
during the morning, they should return Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with just few-sct oncl high
clouds. The main concerns for aviators will be LLWS with winds
out of the WSW at 50-55kts at 2kft thru 11Z-12Z. Sfc winds to
start this TAF pd are out of the SW 8-15kts. A cold front will
sag thru the TAF sites btn 11Z-13Z veering the winds to the west
btn 5-10kts. Winds will then pick up behind the cold front
around 16Z-17Z out of the NW around 10-15kts with gusts
20-25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...73