FXUS63 KGID 040540 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1140 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Forecast for this 7-day period remains dry. Main uncertainty in that lies way out at the end of the period, Monday night- Tuesday. Lot of question marks and differences in models to iron out in the coming days, but not out of the question some snow chances would be added to the forecast if model trends hold. - After a much warmer day today with highs in the 40s and 50s (even 63 in our extreme west at Gothenburg!) , a cold front will be working its way through the area tonight into Wednesday. While the switch to NW winds occurs late tonight, the colder air lags a bit behind. Highs tomorrow may occur earlier in the day for northern areas. Highs range from the low-mid 40s in the NNE to low-mid 50s further SSW...with the colder air taken hold for Thursday with highs in the 20s-30s. - Have a bit of a roller coaster of temperatures through the rest of the period. After the 20s-30s of Thursday, highs by the weekend are back in the mid-upper 50s. Another cold front starts working through the area late Sunday into Monday, with highs on Monday in the 40s, and on Tuesday in the 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Currently... Quiet conditions reign across the area this afternoon. Upper air and satellite data showing continued northwesterly flow in place across the Central Plains, set up between troughing extending southward along the East Coast and northwestward ridging from TX through the Rockies. Satellite has also been showing outside of a bit of upper level cirrus passing through, skies have been clear today. At the surface, the forecast area sits between high pressure spread over much of the eastern CONUS and a trough of low pressure draped through the High Plains. This is keeping winds southwesterly, with gustier winds across the eastern half of the area of 20-25 MPH...and speeds closer to 10 MPH in the far west. No big surprises as far as temperatures go, with 3PM obs ranging from the mid-40s in the east to mid 50s in the west. Tonight through Thursday... Overall no notable changes made to the forecast in the short term, which remains a dry one. Models remain in good agreement showing an upper level disturbance...currently making its way through central Canada...continuing to slide southeast tonight, eventually making it into the Great Lakes region by the end of the day Wednesday. While this disturbance won't be bringing any precipitation to the area, it will be pushing a surface cold front through. Timing-wise, models show the shift in winds to the northwest working its way into the forecast area tonight, with the colder air mass lagging a bit behind. Winds this evening/overnight gradually turn more westerly ahead of the front, with the NW expected to have spread across the entire forecast area by 12Z Wednesday. With the cooler air advecting in from the north during the daytime hours, it makes the temperature forecast tricky...and for some (especially NNE areas), temps may steady out already by midday and go nowhere or drop during the afternoon. Forecast highs range from the low- mid 40s in the NNE to the mid 50s in the SSW. This front will also bring the potential for gusty winds, aided by mostly sunny- partly cloudy skies and the above mentioned cold air advection, with gusts of 20-25 MPH...with central/northeastern portions of the forecast area having the best potential for those gusts. That colder airmass has more of an impact getting into Wednesday night and Thursday. Overnight lows Wed PM/Thu AM are expected to drop into the teens (some single digits not out of the question in far NNE areas), also aided by light winds with sfc ridge axis moving in...while highs on Thursday only reach the mid 20s in the east to mid 30s in the west. Winds on Thursday remain on the light side, gradually switching to the south through the day as that sfc ridge axis pushes east. End of the week on into early next week... For the period running from Friday on through next Tuesday...the current forecast remains dry...but there is some uncertainty in that as we get into Mon/Tue. Models are in good agreement showing upper level flow across the region remaining northwesterly, with a blocking pattern set up to end the weak over the western CONUS. That pattern breaks down as we get through the weekend, with more zonal flow developing as the closed low over the SWrn CONUS starts pushing further east and a shortwave trough axis crosses the Plains...but with no notable moisture to work with, models keep things dry. The current system to monitor is the one that will be pushing in from the Pac NW, looking to move onto the Plains in the Monday night- Tuesday time frame. NBM kept chances out of the forecast for now (barely)...some deterministic models suggest that snow could at the very least clip SSE portions of the area, but ensemble probabilities remain pretty low. If this trend holds, chances will need to be added to the forecast. Otherwise, it's a bit of a roller coast ride as far as temperatures go. Following the 20s-30s on Thursday, models are in good agreement showing a moderating airmass across the area and a warming trend just in time for the weekend. Friday highs are similar to today (40s east/50s west), with more solidly mid- upper 50s for the weekend. Another cold front looks to accompany that Mon/Tue disturbance, dropping highs for Monday back into the 40s, with 30s expected for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period, but LLWS is expected to be a factor at both TAF sites through nearly the entire morning, with LLWS in the forecast through 17Z...more confident in the 09Z-17Z period this morning. Winds will be northwesterly this morning at around 10 kts, with stronger winds aloft. By around 17Z, some of those stronger winds will make it down to the surface, mitigating the LLWS issue but with the new issue of NW winds gusting to 25-30 kts. Through most of the morning, ceilings will be between 15k and 25k ft. However, around 23Z as winds just start to subside, there is expected a brief period of ceilings of 2500-3000 ft...currently these look to be FEW to SCT in nature, but if that layer ends up more prevalent, this would bring both sites down to MVFR. These are expected to clear out of the area around 05/03Z to 05/05Z. Wind gusts are expected to decrease this evening as winds become northerly, but sustained wind speeds of 10-15 kts are still expected through the end of the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Hickford