FXUS63 KGLD 040309
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
809 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler tomorrow and Thursday with highs generally in the 40's
  and 50's.

- Chance for some patches of freezing fog Wednesday night.

- Dry and warm conditions are forecast for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

The remainder of the afternoon is forecast to be fairly warm with 
temperatures in the 50's and upper 60's. Tonight, winds are forecast 
to lower during the evening and early overnight hours as the low 
pressure center moves over the area. With the initially low winds 
and clear skies, temperatures should drop fairly rapidly into the 
low to mid 30's. Near or just after midnight, winds should pick up 
as an upper low/trough pushes into the Northern Plains and pushes 
the low pressure to the east. While winds are forecast to only pick 
up to around 7-15 mph, it should be enough to mix the lower 
atmosphere and allow temperatures to steady, or warm back towards 
the mid to upper 30's. With this, fog or low stratus clouds look to 
be unlikely. There could be a few gusts to 25-30 mph, depending on 
how much of the lower atmosphere can be mixed out.

Tomorrow, a bit cooler of a day is forecast as colder air and 
higher surface pressure begin moving into the area from the 
north with the upper low swinging through the Great Lakes 
region. With dry air forecast to be over the area allowing for 
mostly clear skies, temperatures should still warm into the 
50's. Winds should remain from the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Tomorrow night, winds are forecast to be fairly light through most 
of the night with the high pressure center closer to the area. While 
temperatures should again drop fairly quickly during the evening and 
early overnight hours, there is the possibility for cloud cover and 
fog as some moisture within the main flow from the north is forecast 
to swing through the area. If the moisture remains over the area 
through the night, most of the area should only lower into the 20's 
for temperatures. Otherwise, drier air will move in from behind and 
allow eastern parts of the area to drop into the teens.

No precipitation is forecast for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

The later part of the week is forecast to generally be mild with 
northwest flow over the area and a ridge trying to build over the 
Rockies. Thursday should be the coolest day with the colder air mass 
and high pressure still over the area, keeping highs between 
the upper 30's in the east and low 50's in the west. The rest of
the weekend is forecast to have the area in the 50's and 60's. 
Some passing clouds are possible depending on what can move far 
enough into the area, but precipitation is not expected at this 
time.

Late Sunday and into the beginning of next week remains interesting 
as an upper trough remains forecast to move in from the Northwest 
CONUS. Confidence remains fairly high that the trough will bring a 
colder air mass through the area and lower temperatures (highs 
probably in the 30's and 40's). The chances for precipitation are a 
bit less clear. There are some ensemble members and deterministic 
guidance that brings snow to the area as the trough slides through. 
However, similar to some prior systems, the ensemble spread favors 
the system going further south which would pull any chances for 
precipitation south and east of the area. This has been somewhat 
consistent with earlier guidance so the forecast currently reflects 
a dry and cold solution. Overall chance for impactful
precipitation to begin the week is around 5-10% at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 806 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. 
Winds north-northwest around 10-15kts, then light/variable from
23z onward. LLWS is possible through 16z 340@35kts at flight 
level 2kft.

For KMCK, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. 
Winds, west-northwest 5-10kts through 20z Wednesday then
shifting northeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN