FXUS63 KICT 040814
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
214 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with milder highs in the upper 50s.

- Turning much colder for Thursday with highs in the 30s.

- A steady warming trend into the 50s again over the weekend
  before colder air returns early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The temperature rollercoaster continues for early December 
with an upside day behind a pre-frontal surface trof with highs
generally in the upper half of the 50s. This will be followed 
by a strong cold front late tonight in response to a vigorous 
upper trof diving southward across the Great Lakes. This will 
advect modified Arctic air across central and eastern Kansas for
Thursday with a downslide to highs only in the 30s. The eastern
conus upper trof will slide eastward off the Atlantic coast as 
we head into the start of the weekend with subtle ridging over 
the Plains downstream of the southern branch upper low over 
southeast Arizona/northern Mexico. A steady upturn in 
temperatures is expected with day-over-day warming leading to 
upper 50s again by Saturday. The southern stream upper low/trof 
is progged to be kicked out by an approaching northern stream 
trof moving across the northwest conus by early Sunday. Modest 
moisture return will occur as the southern stream trof opens up
and ejects over the southern Plains thru Sunday. While a few 
showers cannot be ruled out, mainly for southeast Kansas on 
Sunday, will keep the forecast dry for now. The medium range 
continues to support the development of a larger scale longwave 
upper trof over the mid-conus early next week with another 
surge of cold air across the Plains. There remains inconsistent 
signals for any precip of consequence, be it rain or snow, so 
will leave the forecast dry for now into early next week.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1017 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. A stout 
southwesterly low-level jet will support low-level wind shear 
overnight within the lowest 1000-1500 ft AGL over mainly the 
southeasterly half of Kansas. Breezy northwest winds are 
expected Wednesday, with gusts upwards of 18-20 kts during the 
late morning and afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...ADK