FXUS63 KLBF 040423
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1023 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries or light snow are possible across portions of 
  northern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. 

- Dry conditions prevail late week and into the weekend, with
  temperatures largely above average (Avg: Highs-40s, Lows-20s).
  The exception will be Thursday afternoon, where a cold front
  will lead to near and below average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Currently, strengthening downslope westerly flow has led to a quick 
warmup across much of the area, with temperatures in the upper 50s 
to low 60s across much of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. 
Portions of north central Nebraska remain in the low to middle 40s, 
where winds remain southerly and warm advection is weaker. Aloft, 
northwesterly flow prevails, with upper ridging centered over the 
Intermountain West and deep troughing over the Northeastern CONUS. 

For tonight, a surface low will eject eastward out of Manitoba into 
Ontario, dragging a weak cool front southward across the area. 
Little to no moisture will accompany this front, and outside of 
increasing northwest winds, should pass with little impact. The 
increased northwest winds will keep lows a little more mild tonight, 
in the middle to upper 20s. 

For tomorrow and tomorrow night, the initial surface cold front will 
clear the area to the south, with west-northwest winds persisting. 
By late afternoon, an arctic cold front will quickly move south into 
northeast Nebraska, backing into western Nebraska with time. The 
arrival of this front will bring a few different impacts. First, 
northwest winds quickly strengthen amid strong cold advection, with 
gusts increasing to 35-40mph across north central Nebraska. Next, 
low stratus filters into northern Nebraska tomorrow afternoon in 
association with this front. For areas under this stratus deck, 
flurries look possible as mid-level FGEN subtly strengthens amid the 
constricting thermal gradient in the strong CAA regime. Forecast 
soundings show marginally supportive thermal profiles for flurries, 
but often arctic fronts are very efficient with squeezing out 
available moisture into some flurries/light snow. Have introduced a 
flurry mention near the HWY 20 corridor tomorrow afternoon, ending 
tomorrow evening. Some visibility reduction would be possible, 
though any impacts look to be limited at worst. By late tomorrow 
night, arctic high pressure begins to settle into the eastern 
Dakotas, with winds weakening locally. This, coupled with skies at 
least partly clear, should lead to lows falling into the low 
teens to single digits across north central Nebraska. Though 
winds look to largely remain light, even the light winds could 
lead to wind chills locally falling slightly below zero amid the
cold morning lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Much cooler highs are expected to begin the long term on 
Thursday afternoon, with the area remaining under the influence 
of the arctic airmass. An additional threat of flurries or light
snow is at least possible across north central Nebraska again 
Thursday afternoon, though less confidence exists in this. 
Uncertainty is tied to very dry air near H85, and guidance is 
split on if this can be eroded to allow for precipitation to 
occur. Forcing remains rather meager to overcome the degree of 
dry air, and have foregone any snow mention in the forecast for 
now with this in mind. 

Upper ridging then amplifies across the western CONUS into late 
week, and this will be the dominant weather feature locally as we 
head into the weekend. As the upper ridge axis slowly translates 
eastward, westerly downslope low level flow establishes across the 
lee of the Rockies. This will boost highs back to well above 
average, and this looks to persist through the weekend, along with 
dry conditions. The next system of note looks to approach the area 
early next week, though confidence wanes with respect to the phasing 
of a northern and southern stream troughs as they eject into the 
Plains on Monday. This looks to be the next shot at precipitation 
across the area, and will continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Low level wind shear is expected across northern Nebraska 
tonight as the low level jet intensifies. Increasing winds will 
then be possible by Wednesday afternoon with northwest wind 
gusts up to 25 to 30 knots before diminishing after sunset. Some
flurries or light snow could also be possible by late afternoon
across northern Nebraska, however, confidence remains too low 
to put it in the prevailing forecast at this time. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Kulik