FXUS63 KMPX 040628 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1228 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An Arctic front brings plummeting temperatures & light snow showers tomorrow morning. A slick AM commute is possible. - Northwest winds gust to 40-50 mph behind the front late tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening. Reduced visibility from blowing snow is possible across west-central Minnesota. Temperatures trend warmer into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Southerly flow today has allowed for temepratures to rebound nicely since this morning, with highs reaching the 30s this afternoon across southwest Minnesota. This return to near-normal temperatures will be brief however, as an Arctic cold front is set to invade the region overnight through tomorrow morning. Conditions are dry ahead of the front, but enough forcing looks to be present to generates scattered to widespread light showers along the front as it passes through the area tomorrow morning. A few hours of light snow showers will begin by 4-5 am across west-central MN, 5-7 AM for central MN/Twin Cities metro/northwest WI, & 7-9 AM for far-southern MN & west-central WI. Potential accumulations are expected to very light, less than half an inch, but will be accompanied by plummeting temperatures behind the front. This could lead to a slick AM commute across the area, especially where any heavier snow showers occur. Gusty northwest winds quickly develop behind the frontal passage, with the pressure gradient continuing to tighten through the day as the area becomes sandwiched between a deepening low pressure over the Great Lakes & an area of strong high pressure advancing out of the Canadian prairies. The gusts will become even stringer by late morning, as strengthening cold advection allows for deeper mixing to occur. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph look likely across much of Minnesota where a Wind Advisory has been issued, with slightly weaker gusts closer to 35-40 mph across western Wisconsin. The winds remain gusty through sunset, with speeds beginning to diminish after midnight as the Canadian high pressure becomes more centered over the region. As mentioned above, temperatures will plummet behind the front with high temperatures occurring early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will plummet through the teens through the afternoon and into the single digits by evening, with below-zero temperatures looking likely across western Minnesota by morning. The strong northwest winds will make it feel even more miserable, for lack of a better word, with below-zero wind chills by afternoon eventually bottoming out between -10 to -20 degrees by morning. Temepratures remain cold Thursday under the continued influence of Canadian high pressure with highs remaining in the teens, albeit with less wind. The area of high pressure slides south of the region by Friday, ushering in a continued stretch of southerly flow and warmer temperatures into the weekend. Upper level ridging even develops over the Upper Midwest this weekend, allowing a return to above- normal temperatures for the first time in over a week. Highs in the mid to upper 30s are all but guaranteed, and could reach 40 across southern Minnesota Saturday and area-wide on Sunday. Deterministic & ensemble guidance continues to highlight a potential system during the late Sunday/Monday timeframe that will likely bring us our next chance for widespread precipitation. However, guidance remains varied on the amount of cold air available with this system, meaning precipitation type remains uncertain between a warmer all-rain scenario, and a colder scenario with the potential for rain & a wintry mix of snow/freezing rain. Confidence is high in the return to colder, likely below-normal, temperatures midweek behind this system && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 A solid deck of MVFR stratus is quickly pushing southeast across northwest Minnesota behind the incoming cold front. Southwesterly winds will shift more west/northwesterly overnight, and increase through daybreak on Wednesday. As temperatures continue to warm up, some of the latest models are hinting at potential for a brief 1-2 hour period of freezing drizzle before switching over to all snow. Confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time, but timing would place it either right at the start of the tempo groups or about an hour beforehand. Scattered snow showers are likely (50-70%) during the early morning, but could linger into the afternoon/evening as the system moves east. These showers will be highly variable, so it is difficult to pinpoint a specific time and are best represented by the tempo groups. Periods of reduced visibility are possible where the heaviest showers move through. Strong northwest winds prevail Wednesday afternoon and evening, with gusts between 30 to 40 knots. KMSP...Winds have started to shift more westerly as the front approaches from the northwest. The MVFR stratus has made good time, thus pushing the most likely arrival time somewhere between 08-09z. With temps still warming, if we build enough a warm layer near the surface, it is possible to see a brief 1-2 hour window of freezing drizzle. Most likely time at MSP would be around 11-13z if this were to occur. We should cool down enough after then for a switch over to all precip falling as snow. Snow showers then continue on and off throughout the morning. As we head into the afternoon and evening, soundings dry out pretty quickly. Showers could persist longer if the saturated layer falls within the DGZ or if we do not dry out as quickly as models predict. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker- Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...BED