FXUS63 KPAH 040512
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1112 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief warm-up on Wednesday before another cold blast moves in for 
  the end of the work week.

- Warmer temperatures return this weekend and into early next week.

- Rain chances return to the region Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Surface high pressure parked overhead today will depart to our 
southeast on Wednesday. Clouds have been slow to clear the east half 
of the area today, with 1 PM temperatures remaining in the 20s for 
those areas. Another frigid night is in store tonight, with lows 
likely occurring this evening or early overnight. Southerly winds 
pick up overnight, which should lead to rising temperatures late in 
the night. While most guidance keeps us dry, the NAM continues to 
hint at enough low level lift and moisture present to squeeze out 
some very light QPF in the 08-12z window across our northern 
counties. Decided to keep PoPs silent, but add in the patchy 
freezing drizzle mention for this possibility.

An upper level disturbance will sweep across the Great Lakes on 
Wednesday, which will lead to a cold front sinking southeast across 
the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. While the main zone of 
precipitation looks to remain northeast of our cwa, a small chance 
for rain or snow may briefly sneak into our far eastern counties 
during the evening or overnight. It will also be rather breezy
on Wednesday with wind gusts of at least 20 to 25 mph out of the
southwest.

Colder air funnels back into the region Thursday into Friday as a 
surface high moves across the region. Most locations likely will 
remain below freezing for highs on Thursday and only in the 30s on 
Friday. Southerly flow begins to return by Saturday which should 
help boost us into the 40s to near 50.

Late in the weekend southwest flow will develop with an upper 
disturbance moving across the Ohio Valley into Monday. Moisture 
surges across the region later Sunday through Monday. QPF amounts 
remain somewhat in question, but a healthy amount is possible. 
Current WPC guidance produces a swath of 1 to 2 inches along and 
south of the Ohio River.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

An area stratus around 5kft has developed and should spread 
east across the terminals this morning. Southwesterly flow will 
ramp up ahead of a cold front in the morning between 5-15 kts 
with gusts as high as 25 kts. The front will pass through this 
evening veering winds toward the northwest. Increasing flow just
off the deck will lead to some LLWS this morning. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD