FXUS63 KSGF 040441 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1041 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy southwest winds increase Wednesday morning. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are likely. - Warmer temperatures briefly return for Wednesday before colder air moves in on Thursday. Wind chills will drop into the single digits across central MO early Thursday morning. - Precipitation chances are very low (less than 20 percent) through Sunday morning. Precip chances increase by Monday however confidence remains low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows the northwest flow pattern locked in place across the central US with a upper level low cutoff across California. Surface high pressure, which brought us the very cold morning, has slid southeast of the area. Southerly winds have returned however temps have only risen into the upper 30s to lower 40s which is 10-15 deg below normal. Another batch of cold air was moving southeast across western/central Canada. Skies were mostly clear across the area however a small batch of clouds was located on the leading edge of low level warm air advection across southeast Kansas, moving east. Through Wednesday: The 850mb flow will become westerly through tonight with increasing low level warm air advection. The low levels will become mixed overnight with southwest winds gradually increasing. This will keep low temps about 10-15 degrees warmer than last night. Locations east of Springfield will drop into the middle to upper 20s with lower to middle 30s expected elsewhere. Latest HREF and NBM data continues to suggest wind gusts of 25-35 mph beginning very late tonight and continuing through Wednesday morning. The highest gusts will likely be during the mid to late morning Wednesday as clear skies allow us to mix down some of the stronger 850mb winds. This is supported by model soundings/momentum transfer potential. Mean 850mb temps look to climb into the 6-8C range (was -1C this morning) which will allow us to warm into the middle to upper 50s under clear skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Shortwave energy and that next batch of cold air will be quickly moving southeast on Wednesday with a cold front moving into our area as early as late Wednesday evening. This will be a dry front with strong cold air advection. 850mb temps will drop well below freezing with Thursday morning temps in the teens to lower 20s. Gusty north winds of 15-25 mph, combined with the cold air temps will create windchill values in the single digits Thursday morning. Even with sunshine, strong cold air advection looks to keep highs in the middle to upper 20s north of Springfield with lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wind chills of 15-25F will likely last through the day. Much like this morning, surface high pressure (while perhaps not as strong) will move overhead by early Thursday morning. This will allow for low temps to again drop into the teens. Friday through the weekend: Surface high will then slide southeast of the area Friday with temps slowly warming back into the 40s. Ensembles continues to suggest a gradual warmup this weekend as the low level flow becomes increasingly southwesterly. Mean 850mb temps from the ensembles continues to be in the 5-8C range which would promote high temps reaching back to or above average. Latest NBM temp spreads continue to decrease which increases confidence that highs will reach the middle to upper 50s Saturday and Sunday. Ensemble variance continues to increase by late in the weekend as there remains uncertainty with the progression of shortwave energy across the southwest US. There does seem to be an increasing amount of ensemble members that shows the upper level energy moving northeast towards Oklahoma and Texas Sunday. This seems to be in response to stronger energy that will move through the western US. This stronger energy will likely be what is needed to kick out the southwest US energy however it remains uncertain when and where this occurs. Precip chances for Sunday night and Monday have increased over 30%, especially east of Springfield. However, additional changes are likely in the Sunday/Monday timeframe as the overall system structure becomes more clear. Beyond this system, AO teleconnections continue to remain unclear with a high spread in variance. This leads to low confidence on when the next round of cold air moves south towards the central US. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, but look for strengthening wind fields. This will result in LLWS tonight into Wednesday morning and gusty SW to W winds on Wednesday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Titus