FXUS64 KAMA 111953 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 153 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 148 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 - South to southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts expected on Friday. This may lead to elevated fire weather conditions near the New Mexico state line. && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 148 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Southerly winds along with mostly cloudy skies should keep low temperatures tonight above average. A back-door cold front may sneak into the northern Texas Panhandle by Thursday afternoon. The air behind this cold front is modified arctic air, so it will be interesting to see if we get a tight gradient of temperatures across it. We may need to tweak the temperatures some once the front makes its move into the Panhandles. Confidence is very low on where this front will end of up Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 148 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 The cold front will dissolve on Friday as a lee-side surface low intensifies in southeast Colorado in response to an upper level short wave trough moving to our north. Downslope winds in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher gusts will help to warm high temperatures into the upper 50's to the upper 60's. A surface high pressure system will move across the Panhandles Saturday behind a weak cold front and this will keep the winds on the lighter side. Another lee-side surface low develops Sunday in southeast Colorado ahead of an upper level disturbance moving east across the Central Rockies. This will again allow for downslope gusty winds and high temperatures reaching up into the mid and upper 60's. Another weak cold front then moves through the Panhandles Sunday night with much weaker winds behind it for Monday. A lee-side low kicks winds back up out of the southwest for Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 South and southwest winds may get occasionally gusty at DHT and GUY this afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be in the 10 to 15 knot range through this forecast. Skies are expected to remain VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 32 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 25 55 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 25 54 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 32 60 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 28 59 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 31 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 33 59 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 23 55 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 22 54 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 31 60 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 30 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 32 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 31 58 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 32 58 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...15