FXUS64 KBMX 111738
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1138 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST WED DEC 11 2024

An arctic airmass is currently filtering across the northern tier
of the CONUS, with the southern fringe of that airmass advecting
into the Deep South this afternoon. Despite full sunshine across
Central Alabama, cold air advection will keep temperatures very
chilly this afternoon in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Pressure
gradient winds behind the cold front will continue through the
afternoon, with northwesterly gusts above 30mph at times. A few
locations along and south of the I-85 corridor could have some
gusts over 35mph over the next few hours. Although we'll be very 
close to Wind Advisory criteria for those locations, we've opted
to hold off for now with winds gradually decreasing by the late
afternoon and after sunset. As a 1032mb surface ridge settles over
the region overnight tonight, winds are expected to become light
or calm after midnight. As the boundary layer is allowed to
decouple, ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow
temperatures to drop into the 20s across northern counties and
normally cooler sheltered locations. Otherwise, most other
locations should drop down between 30 and 32 degrees by daybreak
Thursday.

A slight modification of the airmass is expected by Thursday as
the surface ridge parks directly overhead. Winds will be much
lower as a result, expected to be light or variable Thursday
afternoon with plenty of sunshine. The forecast remains on track
for us to reach the low to mid 50s for highs.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST WED DEC 11 2024

An upper trough will be positioned over the Great Plains by Saturday 
morning, with a surface low quickly pulling northward from Kansas to 
the Lake Michigan region through Saturday night. A decaying cold 
front associated with this surface low will slide eastward into the 
Ohio River Valley Saturday night into Sunday. Scattered showers will 
be possible along this front southward to Alabama, especially across 
the northern half of the state where the greatest lift will be 
situated.

A second trough swinging across the Dakotas Sunday night into Monday 
will bring a similar setup, with another surface low pushing from 
the Plains to the Great Lakes and an associated weak front 
attempting to push through Central Alabama sometime on Tuesday. Rain 
chances increase again Monday night into early Tuesday but again 
appear to be greatest in the northern half of the state. Latest 
global model runs have the precipitation with this system dying off 
before making it much past the state.

Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days in the extended, with 
afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 60s in many areas of 
Central Alabama. Thursday night lows will be in the low 30s, 
followed by a warming trend into next week with low temps in the 40s 
to low 50s.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST WED DEC 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
gusty northwest winds above 25 knots at times through 00z this
evening. Winds will gradually decrease between 00z and 06z,
becoming calm or variable through 12z Thursday morning. Light
winds will continue through 18z Thursday. 

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

It will be drier this afternoon post cold front. Minimum RH values 
will drop to 35-45 percent on today as dry conditions return 
areawide. Values on Thursday will be in the 30-35 percent range. 20 
ft winds will be northwesterly at 12-15 mph today, slowing during 
the evening and becoming light and variable on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     49  24  52  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Anniston    48  29  53  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Birmingham  49  30  52  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Tuscaloosa  53  29  53  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Calera      50  31  53  34 /   0   0   0   0 
Auburn      50  32  53  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Montgomery  52  32  53  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Troy        52  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...56/GDG